Just because there would only be 3 conference home games for each doesn't negate that each team in the conference would likley have 6 home games each season.
Most of these teams host an annual P5 opponent in upcoming future schedules. That would improve (like BYU) with more OOC flexibility. And, these teams provide the best G5 matchups available to the networks.
There would be plenty of inventory for a quality TV deal.
ESPN could pay the same rate that it currently pays for MWC, AAC, and BYU inventory (about $40M per year - $18M + $18M + $4M) and would continue to have rights to all BYU and Boise St. home inventory plus the best of the AAC. Even without any bump in pay, that equals $4M per school per year - which is exactly why this deal makes sense and how its gets done.
Go and see which BYU, MWC and AAC games ESPN has broadcast this year (including this weekend's games):
- Wisconsin at BYU (ABC)
- UCLA at Memphis (ABC)
- Illinois at USF (ESPN)
- Boise St. at BYU (ESPN)
- Temple at USF (ESPN)
- Memphis at UConn (ESPN)
- Memphis at Houston (ESPN)
- Boise St. at New Mexico (ESPN)
- Portland St. at BYU (ESPN)
- Memphis at UCF (ESPN2)
- Utah at BYU (ESPN2)
- Virginia at Boise St. (ESPN2)
- Wyoming at Boise St. (ESPN2)
- SDSU at UNLV (ESPN2)
- USF at Tulane (ESPN2)
- Troy at Boise St. (ESPNU)
- ECU at UConn (ESPNU)
- Navy at Tulsa (ESPNU)
- Houston at Temple (ESPNU)
- UCF at Cincinnati (ESPNU)
- SMU at Cincinnati (ESPNU)
- Tulsa at UConn (ESPNU)
So far, 2 ABC broadcasts, 7 ESPN broadcasts, 6 ESPN2 broadcasts, and 7 ESPNU broadcasts.
That's pretty good inventory through Week 8. Easily would justify a $40M TV deal (and that's not factoring basketball, if it were part of the deal).