restate where I think Everyman's analysis could be wrong.

Everyman believes that Gov Herbert thought the OR Show was not serious about moving (ie. he thought they were bluffing). Implying that Gov Herbert didn't have a good handle on the situation and miscalculated.

I don't see that as true. Gov Herbert is not dumb, he's been governor for something like 8 years now. He's always taken the position that the state should have preference in deciding land use issues. The OR show made threats and essentially an ultimatum that if Gov Herbert gave up that position, they would think about staying. The governor in turn didn't make any threats (tit for tat) and offered to sit down with them.

He's made a calculated decision, to think about San Juan County's long term interest.