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Jul 19, 2017
4:08:03pm
displacedute All-American
You can't really know how things are going right now, IMO.
The amount of effort involved in keeping track of your own team's recruiting (who's offered, who has you in a top 10 or 8 or 5 or 3, who's expected, what commits are at risk of decomitting, etc.) is a lot of work, and it changes constantly. Trying to keep track of your team and another team, in any reasonable amount of detail, is nearly impossible. And if you don't have any detail, then you have no idea. Some schools are early recruiters (BYU among them), some are late (Utah among them). Some fill most of their class and leave a few spots for late bloomers or guys changing their mind. Some expect every commit to stay committed, and some expect to lose several. It's just not reasonable to try and keep track of a team that isn't yours in July.

Now in December we can start talking about recruiting classes, because we'll have an early signing day that will put several kids "in hand" so the amount of uncertainty decreases significantly at that point. But even then, team rankings on Scout and Rivals are of limited value until mid-January, at the soonest, and are of no value whatsoever in July.

There is one caveat. If your class is full (20-25 commits) and terrible (ranked below 60) then I fully expect it to look like that at the end of the year too. So Army (#91 in Rivals with 21 commits) and maybe ECU and N. ILL (both #61 with 18 commits) are going to have bad recruiting years. But the full classes at the top (Miami is #1 with 19 and Penn St. is #2 with 20) I expect to lose players to other heavy hitters, or have other heavy hitters who wait (like Clemson or USC, who both only have 11 commits) pass them, so even they aren't guaranteed to stay high.

That got longer than I expected. TL;DR - July team recruiting rankings are useless and you have to go more in-depth to know how recruiting is going for a team than just looking at rankings.
displacedute
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displacedute
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