two different things. I don't think 40% is that far off in terms of chance of making tourney, but I do think that based on last year the fans expectations need to be tempered more until we actually see them play. I was expecting it to be more like 75/25% split. There is no reason yet to expect this team to be a tourney team we just haven't seen anything to know yet and that is why I think we need to temper expectations somewhat.