Inverted yield curve points to trouble

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Jul 9, 2018
10:46:17am

AxelDC All-American

Inverted yield curve points to trouble

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/06/25/business/what-is-yield-curve-recession-prediction.html

And this is without a foolish trade war that would raise consumer prices while shutting the door to US exports.

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AxelDC

Bio page: AxelDC
Joined: Dec 27, 2006
Last login: Mar 21, 2024
Total posts: 12,959 (287 FO)

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Messages

Author

Time

POLL: When do you think the next major economic downturn will be?

molodyets

7/9/18 10:19am

You’re really going all in on this 2020 prediction

7/9/18 10:20am

Could be sooner. I'm just curious what the rest of the board thinks.

molodyets

7/9/18 10:21am

Election results can change confidence...

Tokolosh

7/9/18 10:27am

Inverted yield curve points to trouble

AxelDC

7/9/18 10:46am

Seems like a less reliable indicator given the assets that the FED owns and is

Skeptical Optimist

7/9/18 10:52am

The yield curve predicts Fed actions

AxelDC

7/9/18 11:01am

But the Fed also has control of the yields on the curve

Skeptical Optimist

7/9/18 11:13am

second half 2019 if trade war continues to escalate at current pace

Yoshinobu

7/9/18 10:25am

2020 is what I've heard from a few people. I haven't heard anything from my economist buddy, but that would

jdub

7/9/18 10:29am

I picked 2020 but I don’t think it will be as bad as the 08-09 downturn

cougarfann888

7/9/18 10:31am

depends upon what happens with the huge debt load. Oct 2020 is my bet

Nat Gas Man

7/9/18 1:21pm

Are you referencing consumer or national debt?

cougarfann888

7/9/18 1:24pm

yes, but nobody seems to care about the national debt until it bursts.

Nat Gas Man

7/9/18 1:29pm

The biggest issue right now is corporate debt.

molodyets

7/9/18 1:31pm

this is a very bid deal something like $1T coming due in the corp world with no

Nat Gas Man

7/9/18 1:36pm

And almost every tech company that's going public isn't profitable and the

molodyets

7/9/18 2:52pm

Define major? Have we even had a minor one yet (since 08)?

7/9/18 10:30am

08 was fairly major, I'd say. And that was 10 years ago.

jdub

7/9/18 10:34am

I was asking if we had experienced a minor downturn since the major one in 08. Not that 08 was minor lol

7/9/18 4:55pm

Q1 '11 and Q1 '14 both saw contraction in GDP. We also went flat in late 2012

Skeptical Optimist

7/9/18 10:36am

Don't we define recession as 2 consecutive quarters or negative growth?

7/9/18 4:57pm

That is the NBER definition of a recession, but negative growth is a slowdown

Skeptical Optimist

7/9/18 5:08pm

Major being a year+, closer to 08 than to going flat in 12/15, or slight in 11.

molodyets

7/9/18 10:40am

Not sure - but this all looks pretty reasonable, right?

crack

7/9/18 10:43am

Early 2020 without Trump Trade War

AxelDC

7/9/18 10:47am

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