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Jul 9, 2018
11:01
:49
am
AxelDC
All-American
The yield curve predicts Fed actions
If banks think interest rates will fall in the future, they will give you less money for long term investments like CDs. That inversion has predicted recessions pretty accurately.
The Fed would only lower rates if we are in a recession.
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AxelDC
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AxelDC
Joined
Dec 27, 2006
Last login
Mar 21, 2024
Total posts
12,959 (287 FO)
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Messages
Author
Time
POLL: When do you think the next major economic downturn will be?
molodyets
7/9/18 10:19am
You’re really going all in on this 2020 prediction
blackandblue
7/9/18 10:20am
Could be sooner. I'm just curious what the rest of the board thinks.
molodyets
7/9/18 10:21am
Election results can change confidence...
Tokolosh
7/9/18 10:27am
Inverted yield curve points to trouble
AxelDC
7/9/18 10:46am
Seems like a less reliable indicator given the assets that the FED owns and is
Skeptical Optimist
7/9/18 10:52am
The yield curve predicts Fed actions
AxelDC
7/9/18 11:01am
But the Fed also has control of the yields on the curve
Skeptical Optimist
7/9/18 11:13am
second half 2019 if trade war continues to escalate at current pace
Yoshinobu
7/9/18 10:25am
2020 is what I've heard from a few people. I haven't heard anything from my economist buddy, but that would
jdub
7/9/18 10:29am
I picked 2020 but I don’t think it will be as bad as the 08-09 downturn
cougarfann888
7/9/18 10:31am
depends upon what happens with the huge debt load. Oct 2020 is my bet
Nat Gas Man
7/9/18 1:21pm
Are you referencing consumer or national debt?
cougarfann888
7/9/18 1:24pm
yes, but nobody seems to care about the national debt until it bursts.
Nat Gas Man
7/9/18 1:29pm
The biggest issue right now is corporate debt.
molodyets
7/9/18 1:31pm
this is a very bid deal something like $1T coming due in the corp world with no
Nat Gas Man
7/9/18 1:36pm
And almost every tech company that's going public isn't profitable and the
molodyets
7/9/18 2:52pm
Define major? Have we even had a minor one yet (since 08)?
Probable Sacko
7/9/18 10:30am
08 was fairly major, I'd say. And that was 10 years ago.
jdub
7/9/18 10:34am
I was asking if we had experienced a minor downturn since the major one in 08. Not that 08 was minor lol
Probable Sacko
7/9/18 4:55pm
Q1 '11 and Q1 '14 both saw contraction in GDP. We also went flat in late 2012
Skeptical Optimist
7/9/18 10:36am
Don't we define recession as 2 consecutive quarters or negative growth?
Probable Sacko
7/9/18 4:57pm
That is the NBER definition of a recession, but negative growth is a slowdown
Skeptical Optimist
7/9/18 5:08pm
Major being a year+, closer to 08 than to going flat in 12/15, or slight in 11.
molodyets
7/9/18 10:40am
Not sure - but this all looks pretty reasonable, right?
crack
7/9/18 10:43am
Early 2020 without Trump Trade War
AxelDC
7/9/18 10:47am
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