yes, but nobody seems to care about the national debt until it bursts.

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Jul 9, 2018
1:29:43pm

Nat Gas Man All-American

yes, but nobody seems to care about the national debt until it bursts.

but total consumer debt is way high. Very likely this could be the big deal of the 2020 election.

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Nat Gas Man

Previous username: TXSmith
Bio page: Nat Gas Man
Joined: Apr 28, 2010
Last login: Aug 23, 2023
Total posts: 53,749 (638 FO)

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Messages

Author

Time

POLL: When do you think the next major economic downturn will be?

molodyets

7/9/18 10:19am

You’re really going all in on this 2020 prediction

7/9/18 10:20am

Could be sooner. I'm just curious what the rest of the board thinks.

molodyets

7/9/18 10:21am

Election results can change confidence...

Tokolosh

7/9/18 10:27am

Inverted yield curve points to trouble

AxelDC

7/9/18 10:46am

Seems like a less reliable indicator given the assets that the FED owns and is

Skeptical Optimist

7/9/18 10:52am

The yield curve predicts Fed actions

AxelDC

7/9/18 11:01am

But the Fed also has control of the yields on the curve

Skeptical Optimist

7/9/18 11:13am

second half 2019 if trade war continues to escalate at current pace

Yoshinobu

7/9/18 10:25am

2020 is what I've heard from a few people. I haven't heard anything from my economist buddy, but that would

jdub

7/9/18 10:29am

I picked 2020 but I don’t think it will be as bad as the 08-09 downturn

cougarfann888

7/9/18 10:31am

depends upon what happens with the huge debt load. Oct 2020 is my bet

Nat Gas Man

7/9/18 1:21pm

Are you referencing consumer or national debt?

cougarfann888

7/9/18 1:24pm

yes, but nobody seems to care about the national debt until it bursts.

Nat Gas Man

7/9/18 1:29pm

The biggest issue right now is corporate debt.

molodyets

7/9/18 1:31pm

this is a very bid deal something like $1T coming due in the corp world with no

Nat Gas Man

7/9/18 1:36pm

And almost every tech company that's going public isn't profitable and the

molodyets

7/9/18 2:52pm

Define major? Have we even had a minor one yet (since 08)?

7/9/18 10:30am

08 was fairly major, I'd say. And that was 10 years ago.

jdub

7/9/18 10:34am

I was asking if we had experienced a minor downturn since the major one in 08. Not that 08 was minor lol

7/9/18 4:55pm

Q1 '11 and Q1 '14 both saw contraction in GDP. We also went flat in late 2012

Skeptical Optimist

7/9/18 10:36am

Don't we define recession as 2 consecutive quarters or negative growth?

7/9/18 4:57pm

That is the NBER definition of a recession, but negative growth is a slowdown

Skeptical Optimist

7/9/18 5:08pm

Major being a year+, closer to 08 than to going flat in 12/15, or slight in 11.

molodyets

7/9/18 10:40am

Not sure - but this all looks pretty reasonable, right?

crack

7/9/18 10:43am

Early 2020 without Trump Trade War

AxelDC

7/9/18 10:47am

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