unsuitable for predicting this year’s performance. That many injuries means that there are too many variables that can’t reasonably be expected to be relevant this year. Any competent researcher or analyst would discard last season as being a deeply flawed sample that is highly unlikely to lead to any accurate predictions. That’s why there are even more ridiculous predictions this year than most years. People are using last year as a reference as if it were normal enough to be relevant, when in reality it tells us almost nothing useful about the upcoming season.

But, I realize that accepting that reality takes the mustard out of the gloom-and-doom merchants, and doesn’t leave a whole lot to talk about until games are actually played. And so, on sports shows and fan discussion boards nationwide, it’s the same things being said about the same topics, and since nobody knows anything, really, it’s just a bunch of guessing and make-believe.

So, it’s simple. If injuries are kept to a reasonable minimum, BYU absolutely will be better than last year, possibly a LOT better, just from that alone. Then, if the coaching staff changes actually turn out to be coaching staff improvements, BYU will have a strong season. If the injuries are like last year, it doesn’t really matter who the coaches are. Not even a master builder can construct a high-quality house if half of his main tools are broken.

Would last year have been a run at the playoffs if there hadn’t been an abnormal number of injuries? Probably not. But that many injuries throws everything out of whack, and adversely affects the performance of everyone on the team. It’s not reasonable to believe that all or most of those abnormal factors will combine again this year, but it is perfectly reasonable to assume that the mere absence of those abnormal factors will result in noticeably better performance.

No need—at all—for doom and gloom at this point. It’s not based on any relevant reality.