I believe in math, I really do...but this chart doesn’t make sense

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Sep 23, 2018
8:56:18pm

byuguns55 All-American

I believe in math, I really do...but this chart doesn’t make sense

If I’m reading it correctly, we have a better chance of beating UW, than we do of beating both UW and the aggies? How is that possible? If we beat UW (while a slim chance), wouldn’t they factor in the higher ranking and confidence our team would bring to a game against a team playing us at our stadium?

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byuguns55

Bio page: byuguns55
Joined: Oct 24, 2009
Last login: Jun 12, 2023
Total posts: 27,958 (1,287 FO)

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Messages

Author

Time

Updated S&P+ win distribution chart for BYU

Gustav

9/23/18 8:01pm

Hope we beat those odds.

Mr. Scoobs

9/23/18 8:04pm

Cool

Blueto

9/23/18 8:07pm

So they’re saying it’s more likely that we’ll only win 1 more game than that

chilango

9/23/18 8:12pm

.1% chance at getting to 11 wins...

Natedog916

9/23/18 8:41pm

I believe in math, I really do...but this chart doesn’t make sense

byuguns55

9/23/18 8:56pm

The probability of winning two games will always be lower than the probability

chilango

9/23/18 9:05pm

Good point...so this chart is purely mathematical then

byuguns55

9/23/18 9:08pm

Yes, see the post below.

chilango

9/23/18 9:12pm

Yes. Whenever you multiply anything by less than one, the number is smaller.

Lalau

9/23/18 9:07pm

It’s is interesting that they think we’ll probably lose to USU

chilango

9/23/18 9:16pm

That was the one that really stuck out to me. Underdogs to Utah State at home?

colton

9/23/18 9:36pm

Yeah, I don't feel good about that game but I still think >50% chance we win

Lalau

9/23/18 9:46pm

7-8 wins is the most likely scenario, eh? I can live with that.

Lalau

9/23/18 9:10pm

I'm still pulling for 9, but won't be disappointed with 8.

Benfica1

9/23/18 9:13pm

I guess I’ve gotten greedy. At this point, I think I would be disappointed with

chilango

9/23/18 9:31pm

I set my pre-season expectations at 6-7, so I'm happy if we beat that.

Lalau

9/23/18 9:48pm

If we lost to UW, Utah state, Boise st, and Utah it would suck.

Mr. Scoobs

9/23/18 9:20pm

Yes in that we didn't reach the full potential that we've shown, but still

Lalau

9/23/18 9:51pm

So highly probable we win 7. And a 50/50 shot at beating USU and getting 8.

GOR

9/23/18 9:29pm

If this actually played out it would be a depressing finish.

Mr. Scoobs

9/23/18 9:42pm

Dang it someone laughed. Did I fail at math again?

GOR

9/23/18 9:42pm

All I have to say is the credit rating agencies caused the recession

Heath Squashwell

9/23/18 10:17pm

Beat UW and the numbers here will change drastically

Hill4Heisman

9/24/18 12:21am

If you would have told me we had 7-8 wins at the beginning of the season,

BluebloodOR

9/24/18 12:25am

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