It seems to me that BYU's success this year is likely going to come down to their 5 games against G5 teams. All five of these teams played in bowl games last year and I would expect them to play in bowl games again this year. While I believe BYU can beat each of these teams, recent history doesn't give me a lot of confidence. I decided to take a closer look and the numbers were a little worse than I remember.

In short, since 2016 BYU has gone ...

4-7 against all G5 Bowl eligible teams since 2016
2-7 against G5 Bowl eligible teams during the regular season (that is outright awful)
0-4 against G5 Bowl eligible teams on the road (4 of BYU's 5 G5 games this year are on the road)
2-0 in bowl games

Even if we exclude 2017, BYU is still 4-4 overall, 0-2 on the road, and just 2-4 during the regular season (thank goodness for the Poinsettia and Potato Bowls).

By comparison, BYU went 8-5 against G5 Bowl eligible teams from 2013-2015 with all five losses coming after Taysom got hurt in 2014.

2016 (2-1)
Toledo (55-53)
@ Boise (27-28)
# Wyoming (24-21)

2017 (0-3)
@ USU (24-40)
Boise St (7-24)
@ Fresno (13-20)

2018 (2-3)
Utah State (20-45)
Hawaii (49-23)
NIU (6-7)
@ Boise St (16-21)
# W Michigan (49-18)

What are your thoughts CB? Are you as surprised by these numbers as I was? Why has BYU struggled so much of late to beat average G5 teams? What is going to make this year any different? Do these numbers affect your preseason expectations or hopes for 2019?