Tennessee, Utah, and USC should all have improved, UW should be slightly worse.
With that said, I don't think your list is unreasonable. I think I'd put USF ahead of Toledo, just based on when you play them and the distance.
I'd put it:
1- UW
1B- Utah
3- Tennessee (because it's a road game)
4- USC
5- Boise
6- USF
7- USU (losses on OL are going to be rough to overcome)
8- Toledo
9- SDSU
10- Liberty (they might be ahead of SDSU if the Auburn QB gets to play this year)
11- UMASS
12- ID ST