Even with Lavell era winning percentages we'd only win 7 or 8 games next year.
It is winning 74% vs non-P5 (was 80% before last year) and 39% vs P5s. So while the P5/non-P5 win rates are very similar, BYU's win% in independence is 62% instead of LaVell's 72%; largely because of how many P5 teams BYU plays now.