I assume Ohio State and LSU are in no matter what. 100% each.

For Clemson, ESPN FPI gives them a 94.9% chance of beating Virginia. If they lose, they can still get in...especially if Georgia and Utah both lose.

For Georgia, ESPN gives them a 44.2% chance of beating LSU. There is no other scenario that gets them in the Playoff (I’m assuming).

Oklahoma is about a 70% favorite to beat Baylor, per ESPN. But they also need Georgia (and/or Clemson) to lose. And even then, I’m giving them just equal odds to be chosen over Utah (if Utah wins) and Clemson (if the Tigers lose).

Same scenario for Baylor as for Oklahoma, only they are underdogs against the Sooners.

Same scenario for Utah as for the Big XII champion. Earlier today, ESPN gave Utah just a 49.9% chance of beating Oregon; it’s since edged up to 51.1% so their odds have probably gone up a bit.

So for Utah, it was primarily .499 (chance of beating Oregon) x .558 (chances of LSU beating Georgia x .5 (assumed toss-up between them and the Big XII champion). That puts them at 13.9%. Then there are further scenarios that involve Clemson losing that could open the door, as well. But the chances of Clemson losing are slim.

In reality, though, Utah’s probably ahead of Baylor in the pecking order and arguably below Oklahoma in that pecking order. But what do I know, so I just gave them all an equal chance of getting selected for an available playoff spot.

Heck, there’s a 41.9% chance that there is no available playoff spot—this happens if Clemson and Georgia both win. So the Utes’ chances are down to about 58% before even factoring in their game against Oregon.