listed won natties after limits were introduced, and during the time in which they were reduced, eventually to 85. The scholly limit has been unchanged since 1992, and we’ve had no new first-time champions since 1996 — although as I noted, Michigan and Tennessee won their first natties in many decades in 1997-98.

I think you’re reaching the wrong conclusion. I believe that largely because scholly limits have been unchanged since 1992, we’ve had no new national champs since the late ‘90s.

The trend is what matters here: as schollies were reduced, there was an explosion of new champions. Once the number of schollies stabilized, and its impact worked its way through the system, the number of new champs dropped to zero. The implication is that if we reduce schollies again, we should see another surge of new players on the national stage, like we did last time.