First, we would have to beat Boise...and our current success rate is less than 50%. Next, we would have to out-rank the AAC champion, which we have not even come close to doing in the CFP era. Finally, we would have to out-rank some other G5 champion that has a nice-and-shiny win-loss record. 

I think BYU would be a contender for the G5 bid about 30-50% of the time, but would only land the bid about once a decade. 

Is that worth it? Is that better than the benefits of independence? (I definitely don't see BYU as an at large playoff team more than once per decade).