chance for the next 4-5 years. Your post does a very good job explaining why that is true. That said, I think saying BYU "should" win is a bit of a stretch. Utah brings back a lot on offense, and has, at least on paper, some good talent on D. I would not be at all surprised by a BYU win, which was not true the last few years, I just can't go as far as "should."
By the way, you said "true freshmen will likely start." That is extremely unlikely; there's a good chance one true freshman will start, and he was 247's #33 prospect in the whole country and will probably be the best DB on the field in that game. I suppose Ritchie might start, but I'd be surprised if he's starting in game 1.