The chance of us getting invited to the P5 is the same as the chance of the P5 breaking off into their own division, which is also not ever going to happen (mostly for political reasons).

To your second point (why not just go G5 when we have no other options?): because at this point in time there are G5 conferences that want us. Five years from now, when we are even more toxic than we are now for political reasons, who is to say that will be the case?

The longer we stay in the self-induced perdition that is football Independence the fewer friends and allies we will have and the less favorable terms we will get if/when we do end up joining (if we are given terms at all).