They have simply been very inconsistent, which finally having an older team may somewhat help.

To your point, that’s correct. Beating a mid-tier P5 team will absolutely be a good measuring stick of whether they can win games during a very difficult schedule. If they can’t beat Utah, a decent P5 team but without tons of returning talent, then I can’t expect them to win at ASU, at Minnesota, or at Stanford. Or likely against Michigan State or at Boise State, for that matter. Utah should be one of the more winnable upper-level games next season. If they’re not good enough to win that game, then the rest of the schedule will be a big problem.