Being an average to below average P5 team allows you to have the talent to snag a good win and slip vs G5 teams. See BYU for the last decade. Kinda hard to argue this. They average 6 wins the last three years. Might average less in a P5 Conf. I don't know what I'm missing.
Byu could beat Utah and finish 5-7. Depth is a killer.