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Mar 29, 2020
1:53:06pm
Zoobieman Truly Addicted User
Models of Italy and Spain for the next 6 weeks
Italy with current interventions: Based on Ro of 1.2, CFR of 2%, and 5.4% of total active cases will be in critical condition.


Italy without current interventions: Ro = 2.4 instead of Ro 1.2



Spain with current interventions: Based on Ro of 1.2, CFR of 2%, and 5.4% of total active cases will be in critical condition.

(Note: Spain seems to have more patients that are going into severe or critical condition, and so it looks like the death rate might be higher)

Spain without current interventions: Ro = 2.4 instead of Ro 1.2


I went crazy while I was in quarantine so I bought a textbook on epidemiology and learned the different models based on differential equations that they use. . . I also learned that there are a TON of assumptions that go into making these charts and the data is not all there. They also make a ton of assumptions as to how to measure and decrease infectivity rate for each country.

But the biggest take away I got was experts epidemiologists may not know the right answer, but they sure as heck can spot the wrong answer.
Book I bought: https://www.amazon.com/Introduction-Infectious-Disease-Modelling-ebook/dp/B00DUDQ07G/ref=sr_1_2?crid=1M986WL1LTXPK&dchild=1&keywords=infectious+disease+epidemiology&qid=1585511332&sprefix=Epidemiology+infectio%2Caps%2C168&sr=8-2
Originally posted on Mar 29, 2020 at 1:53:06pm
Message modified by Zoobieman on Mar 29, 2020 at 2:23:34pm
Message modified by Zoobieman on Mar 29, 2020 at 2:25:32pm
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Zoobieman
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