The R0 really matters in the beginning when nobody has antibodies and there's a vulnerable population for it to spread

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Mar 29, 2020
2:14:20pm

Mike Honcho Truly Addicted User

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Mike Honcho

Previous username: BYUCoug11
Bio page: Mike Honcho
Joined: Feb 27, 2011
Last login: May 2, 2024
Total posts: 54,000 (10,325 FO)

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Messages

Author

Time

Models of Italy and Spain for the next 6 weeks

Zoobieman

3/29/20 1:53pm

<< Deleted >>

carlstud

3/29/20 1:54pm

How can you have a peak so long as R0 is above 1.0? It's going to grow.

ReyOso

3/29/20 1:57pm

The R0 really matters in the beginning when nobody has antibodies and there's a vulnerable population for it to spread

Mike Honcho

3/29/20 2:14pm

R0 is the infection rate at the beginning of the spread.

Zoobieman

3/29/20 2:20pm

Italy already hit its peak. They won't have more than 20k deaths.

CSoul

3/29/20 1:59pm

I hope you are right my man.

Zoobieman

3/29/20 2:22pm

Model for Italy if they peaked already

Zoobieman

3/29/20 4:06pm

Why the low CFR in your model?

StalwartBraveTrue

3/29/20 5:14pm

Wow, the subject of your post really over-promised and under-delivered.

garyfan

3/29/20 2:00pm

A nice super model or Ferrari model car would look better!

Zoobieman

3/29/20 2:17pm

Not even a single unibrow model

JackStack

3/29/20 2:18pm

You have more people dying in Spain by halving the infection rate than without.

ReyOso

3/29/20 2:01pm

I am sorry, I posted the wrong image. Fixed.

Zoobieman

3/29/20 2:20pm

Update a week later. I am glad I was wrong.

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