Model for Italy if they peaked already

Mar 29, 2020
4:06:39pm

Zoobieman Truly Addicted User

Italy_Dead_CSoul.png

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1DzJ8TOBmh9XPC729d5uxKQChqTDk6m71/view?usp=sharing&usp=embed_facebook[https://drive.google.com/file/d/1DzJ8TOBmh9XPC729d5uxKQChqTDk6m71/view?usp=sharing]

I set the Susceptible Population to 3%, kept Case Fatality rate to 2% and increased R0 from 1.2 to 1.4.

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Zoobieman

Bio page: Zoobieman
Joined: Apr 23, 2012
Last login: May 3, 2024
Total posts: 10,512 (29 FO)

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Messages

Author

Time

Models of Italy and Spain for the next 6 weeks

Zoobieman

3/29/20 1:53pm

<< Deleted >>

carlstud

3/29/20 1:54pm

How can you have a peak so long as R0 is above 1.0? It's going to grow.

ReyOso

3/29/20 1:57pm

The R0 really matters in the beginning when nobody has antibodies and there's a vulnerable population for it to spread

Mike Honcho

3/29/20 2:14pm

R0 is the infection rate at the beginning of the spread.

Zoobieman

3/29/20 2:20pm

Italy already hit its peak. They won't have more than 20k deaths.

CSoul

3/29/20 1:59pm

I hope you are right my man.

Zoobieman

3/29/20 2:22pm

Model for Italy if they peaked already

Zoobieman

3/29/20 4:06pm

Why the low CFR in your model?

StalwartBraveTrue

3/29/20 5:14pm

Wow, the subject of your post really over-promised and under-delivered.

garyfan

3/29/20 2:00pm

A nice super model or Ferrari model car would look better!

Zoobieman

3/29/20 2:17pm

Not even a single unibrow model

JackStack

3/29/20 2:18pm

You have more people dying in Spain by halving the infection rate than without.

ReyOso

3/29/20 2:01pm

I am sorry, I posted the wrong image. Fixed.

Zoobieman

3/29/20 2:20pm

Update a week later. I am glad I was wrong.

Italy_Dead_CSoul.png

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