Apr 3, 2020
4:17:11pm
bythenumbers Walk-on
Here's the recommendation

More bold than I think most academics have been. He basically says the worst case scenario isn't civilization-ending but the proposed solution could be. From the article:

One of the bottom lines is that we don’t know how long social distancing measures and lockdowns can be maintained without major consequences to the economy, society, and mental health. Unpredictable evolutions may ensue, including financial crisis, unrest, civil strife, war, and a meltdown of the social fabric. At a minimum, we need unbiased prevalence and incidence data for the evolving infectious load to guide decision-making.

In the most pessimistic scenario, which I do not espouse, if the new coronavirus infects 60% of the global population and 1% of the infected people die, that will translate into more than 40 million deaths globally, matching the 1918 influenza pandemic.

The vast majority of this hecatomb would be people with limited life expectancies. That’s in contrast to 1918, when many young people died.

One can only hope that, much like in 1918, life will continue. Conversely, with lockdowns of months, if not years, life largely stops, short-term and long-term consequences are entirely unknown, and billions, not just millions, of lives may be eventually at stake.

bythenumbers
Bio page
bythenumbers
Joined
Mar 16, 2020
Last login
May 17, 2024
Total posts
1,771 (1 FO)
Messages
Author
Time

Posting on CougarBoard

In order to post, you will need to either sign up or log in.