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Apr 5, 2020
8:00:55am
bythenumbers Walk-on
You have to adjust for age

I haven't looked at the cruise data since they updated the death count. However, it wasn't at all a representative sample in terms of demographics, so you have to adjust for that. If the same number of people in the same age groups got the flu, you would expect about 6-7 deaths.

Also, even there we don't know if the denominator is accurate. I've heard conflicting reports as to whether they tested everyone, and enough time passed that some may have already recovered. Add to that the false negative problem these tests seem to be having, and you realize that even the cruise ship data could have a denominator problem. However, it certainly didn't have a numerator problem.

bythenumbers
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bythenumbers
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4/4/20 11:38pm

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