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Apr 5, 2020
8:52:43am
bythenumbers Walk-on
We don't know
It is very likely more deadly. However, we still do not know for sure. We do not know the true denominator. What we do know is:

1. Tests, particularly internationally have a false negative problem
2. We have no idea who had this already, only snapshots of current infected (which again are inaccurate)
3. We're still not testing everyone who wants a test.
4. Many people who are infected have a mild enough case they don't even think to try for a test (and if they did they likely wouldn't get one)
5. Any disease that causes death would look horrific if all the deaths happened at once even at relatively low death rates.

I'm not claiming this is nothing, but I will argue that there is far more uncertainty around the actual fatality rate than many think. The current data is almost useless for drawing any conclusions other than an upper bound on the true rate.
bythenumbers
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bythenumbers
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4/4/20 11:38pm

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