Deaths are a lagging indicator

Apr 7, 2020
8:50:32pm

Coog4Life All-American

These people were infected 3-4 weeks ago, just before current measures were rolled out en masse.....the curve has flattened, our efforts are making a significant difference.

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Coog4Life

Previous username: bubbalouie
Bio page: Coog4Life
Joined: Sep 3, 2004
Last login: May 2, 2024
Total posts: 16,205 (407 FO)

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Messages

Author

Time

1,970 dead today. A really bad day.

jkccoug

4/7/20 8:40pm

This guy thinks it's over - back to business....

ClackamasCoug

4/7/20 8:41pm

Yeah I wish it were that easy.

jkccoug

4/7/20 8:42pm

You don't trust the models?

Plato

4/7/20 8:46pm

I don't trust another flare up. What we're doing is the number...

ClackamasCoug

4/7/20 8:50pm

Its fine if you don't trust the model. But what are you basing your

Plato

4/7/20 8:57pm

Common sense. Fear. Experience. Education. Intuition. South Park.

ClackamasCoug

4/7/20 8:59pm

OK. Trust your gut. Great plan. I hope that's not what

Plato

4/7/20 9:01pm

I don't know where you live. My governor is leading our state.

ClackamasCoug

4/7/20 9:02pm

What state? What is your governor's stated

Plato

4/7/20 9:04pm

Oil in your lamp: then why do you let fear govern you?

BleedCougarBlue2

4/7/20 11:27pm

Because I'm not stupid.

ClackamasCoug

4/7/20 11:44pm

Well ...

YSMACK

4/8/20 2:19am

Obviously not as smart as you - but then - smart people don't talk smack.

ClackamasCoug

4/8/20 2:28pm

LOL.

YSMACK

4/8/20 3:02pm

RE: LOL.

ClackamasCoug

4/8/20 4:56pm

The country isn't monolithic. Some states have seriously abated the virus,

coug almighty

4/7/20 8:59pm

In Utah

rggee

4/7/20 9:08pm

You realize he is talking about Utah, right? 0 deaths today.

YSMACK

4/7/20 9:34pm

Cute. Well, not every city is NYC, NO, Detroit, Atlanta or the state of NJ.

Benfica1

4/7/20 10:48pm

First it was “we aren’t China”

coolcats

4/8/20 6:31am

Two strawman arguments in a row. LOL.

Benfica1

4/8/20 9:00am

Completely ignoring your list of places we aren’t like is getting awfully long

coolcats

4/8/20 9:06am

Nah, I've listed the same 5 spots. Included Chicago once.

Benfica1

4/8/20 9:11am

All the metrics show that the growth rate has been slowing

Indy Coug

4/7/20 8:42pm

Agreed 100%. That’s why I’ve been saying we are in “peak” mode, and we may

jkccoug

4/7/20 8:47pm

They explained that some deaths recorded today were from the past day or two, so

wabluecoug

4/7/20 8:46pm

This. Birx said this yesterday.

Indy Coug

4/7/20 8:47pm

Like in Utah, they showed 5 passed away on Monday...but it was from the weekend

WJCougar

4/7/20 8:48pm

If that’s true it would explain some things. And presumably we should see

jkccoug

4/7/20 8:48pm

Crummy, but I also read anyone who now dies who tests positive for Covid

Busiturtle

4/7/20 8:49pm

Lots of people are likely dying from Covid without being tested too. I’m

jkccoug

4/7/20 8:50pm

Yeah, everything I’ve read is that COVID deaths are generally undercounted.

Food Snob

4/7/20 8:54pm

Undercounted when everyone is looking for it.

BYU '80

4/7/20 8:59pm

Except there’s a lot of data out there that suggests a huge spike in deaths in

Food Snob

4/7/20 9:17pm

Also in NYC

Food Snob

4/7/20 9:23pm

This is the one I was thinking of

jkccoug

4/7/20 9:28pm

Shame on their families for letting them die

BYU '80

4/7/20 10:14pm

You’re really shaming people for having their loved ones die?

coolcats

4/8/20 6:33am

Death is one of those events that allows statistical analysis

Busiturtle

4/7/20 8:55pm

Lots? I doubt that.

YSMACK

4/7/20 9:36pm

Well in-home deaths with Covid-like symptoms are up 500% in NYC

jkccoug

4/7/20 9:40pm

Interesting, though it appears they are still being counted even in-home.

YSMACK

4/7/20 9:42pm

Only counted as Covid if they had a positive test

jkccoug

4/8/20 6:06am

Good points.

YSMACK

4/8/20 9:40am

Cardiovascular deaths are down big time last month or two

Covid-19

4/7/20 9:00pm

In all seriousness, this is fascinating stuff

Busiturtle

4/7/20 9:02pm

It really is, going to be an interesting case study when the dust settles

Covid-19

4/8/20 1:09am

Deaths are a lagging indicator

Coog4Life

4/7/20 8:50pm

That’s certainly been my view. Would love to be right.

jkccoug

4/7/20 8:51pm

3-4? Dang that's a long time from start to end

Covid-19

4/7/20 9:01pm

Clearly growth rates are slowing. Social distancing works, but not as

UpperCirqueUte

4/7/20 9:03pm

This week will be bad.

cougXor

4/7/20 9:11pm

Peak deaths will be next week and then we'll start to drop

rggee

4/7/20 9:19pm

Why does the peak deaths always seem like they are next week.

WJCougar

4/7/20 9:50pm

I haven't seen this target move in the US, have you?

Plato

4/7/20 10:03pm

I had it pegged for April 8th way back on March 17th....I may be

777

4/7/20 10:17pm

It's always been April 10 for NY and April 16 for the USA

rggee

4/8/20 8:27am

Sooner in nyc later in others.

BYU '80

4/7/20 10:15pm

It already peaked in others.

Plato

4/8/20 11:56am

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