Its fine if you don't trust the model. But what are you basing your

Apr 7, 2020
8:57:32pm

Plato Truly Addicted User

opinion on then? The model assumes that the only measure Utah has taken is dismissing school on March 17. It assumes Utah has no stay at home order, non-essential businesses not closed, and has not severaly limited travel.

I too don't trust the model.

Obvioulsy, neither I, nor anyone I've heard of, wants to do "the opposite of what we've done."

Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation

IHME | COVID-19 Projections

Explore hospital bed use, need for intensive care beds, and ventilator use due to COVID-19 based on projected deaths

https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections[https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america/utah]

This message has been modified

Originally posted on Apr 7, 2020 at 8:57:32pm

Message modified by Plato on Apr 7, 2020 at 8:58:55pm

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Plato

Bio page: Plato
Joined: Mar 21, 2017
Last login: May 17, 2024
Total posts: 20,031 (482 FO)

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Messages

Author

Time

1,970 dead today. A really bad day.

jkccoug

4/7/20 8:40pm

This guy thinks it's over - back to business....

ClackamasCoug

4/7/20 8:41pm

Yeah I wish it were that easy.

jkccoug

4/7/20 8:42pm

You don't trust the models?

Plato

4/7/20 8:46pm

I don't trust another flare up. What we're doing is the number...

ClackamasCoug

4/7/20 8:50pm

Its fine if you don't trust the model. But what are you basing your

Plato

4/7/20 8:57pm

Common sense. Fear. Experience. Education. Intuition. South Park.

ClackamasCoug

4/7/20 8:59pm

OK. Trust your gut. Great plan. I hope that's not what

Plato

4/7/20 9:01pm

I don't know where you live. My governor is leading our state.

ClackamasCoug

4/7/20 9:02pm

What state? What is your governor's stated

Plato

4/7/20 9:04pm

Oil in your lamp: then why do you let fear govern you?

BleedCougarBlue2

4/7/20 11:27pm

Because I'm not stupid.

ClackamasCoug

4/7/20 11:44pm

Well ...

YSMACK

4/8/20 2:19am

Obviously not as smart as you - but then - smart people don't talk smack.

ClackamasCoug

4/8/20 2:28pm

LOL.

YSMACK

4/8/20 3:02pm

RE: LOL.

ClackamasCoug

4/8/20 4:56pm

The country isn't monolithic. Some states have seriously abated the virus,

coug almighty

4/7/20 8:59pm

In Utah

rggee

4/7/20 9:08pm

You realize he is talking about Utah, right? 0 deaths today.

YSMACK

4/7/20 9:34pm

Cute. Well, not every city is NYC, NO, Detroit, Atlanta or the state of NJ.

Benfica1

4/7/20 10:48pm

First it was “we aren’t China”

coolcats

4/8/20 6:31am

Two strawman arguments in a row. LOL.

Benfica1

4/8/20 9:00am

Completely ignoring your list of places we aren’t like is getting awfully long

coolcats

4/8/20 9:06am

Nah, I've listed the same 5 spots. Included Chicago once.

Benfica1

4/8/20 9:11am

All the metrics show that the growth rate has been slowing

Indy Coug

4/7/20 8:42pm

Agreed 100%. That’s why I’ve been saying we are in “peak” mode, and we may

jkccoug

4/7/20 8:47pm

They explained that some deaths recorded today were from the past day or two, so

wabluecoug

4/7/20 8:46pm

This. Birx said this yesterday.

Indy Coug

4/7/20 8:47pm

Like in Utah, they showed 5 passed away on Monday...but it was from the weekend

WJCougar

4/7/20 8:48pm

If that’s true it would explain some things. And presumably we should see

jkccoug

4/7/20 8:48pm

Crummy, but I also read anyone who now dies who tests positive for Covid

Busiturtle

4/7/20 8:49pm

Lots of people are likely dying from Covid without being tested too. I’m

jkccoug

4/7/20 8:50pm

Yeah, everything I’ve read is that COVID deaths are generally undercounted.

Food Snob

4/7/20 8:54pm

Undercounted when everyone is looking for it.

BYU '80

4/7/20 8:59pm

Except there’s a lot of data out there that suggests a huge spike in deaths in

Food Snob

4/7/20 9:17pm

Also in NYC

Food Snob

4/7/20 9:23pm

This is the one I was thinking of

jkccoug

4/7/20 9:28pm

Shame on their families for letting them die

BYU '80

4/7/20 10:14pm

You’re really shaming people for having their loved ones die?

coolcats

4/8/20 6:33am

Death is one of those events that allows statistical analysis

Busiturtle

4/7/20 8:55pm

Lots? I doubt that.

YSMACK

4/7/20 9:36pm

Well in-home deaths with Covid-like symptoms are up 500% in NYC

jkccoug

4/7/20 9:40pm

Interesting, though it appears they are still being counted even in-home.

YSMACK

4/7/20 9:42pm

Only counted as Covid if they had a positive test

jkccoug

4/8/20 6:06am

Good points.

YSMACK

4/8/20 9:40am

Cardiovascular deaths are down big time last month or two

Covid-19

4/7/20 9:00pm

In all seriousness, this is fascinating stuff

Busiturtle

4/7/20 9:02pm

It really is, going to be an interesting case study when the dust settles

Covid-19

4/8/20 1:09am

Deaths are a lagging indicator

Coog4Life

4/7/20 8:50pm

That’s certainly been my view. Would love to be right.

jkccoug

4/7/20 8:51pm

3-4? Dang that's a long time from start to end

Covid-19

4/7/20 9:01pm

Clearly growth rates are slowing. Social distancing works, but not as

UpperCirqueUte

4/7/20 9:03pm

This week will be bad.

cougXor

4/7/20 9:11pm

Peak deaths will be next week and then we'll start to drop

rggee

4/7/20 9:19pm

Why does the peak deaths always seem like they are next week.

WJCougar

4/7/20 9:50pm

I haven't seen this target move in the US, have you?

Plato

4/7/20 10:03pm

I had it pegged for April 8th way back on March 17th....I may be

777

4/7/20 10:17pm

It's always been April 10 for NY and April 16 for the USA

rggee

4/8/20 8:27am

Sooner in nyc later in others.

BYU '80

4/7/20 10:15pm

It already peaked in others.

Plato

4/8/20 11:56am

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