As I posted last week, I feared that all of the cross-border restrictions would interrupt Spring planting here in Europe... it is now nearing a catastrophe for fertilizers and pesticides in Europe. I just spoke with several contacts that I have at the major shipping lines around the world. At the port of Antwerp, they are operating on a skeleton staff and only servicing shipments which contain medical supplies and other materials in direct support of the COVID response.

There are two freighters loaded with pesticides and other agricultural products which are moored in the harbor, but their crews have been told they will not be offloaded until June.

The fact that these industrial materials will not make it to farmers in time will reduce yields this year. Reduced yields will result in higher commodities prices, which combined with the unemployment insurance here in EU (which is effectively Universal Basic Income), my economist colleagues suggest that the EU will see the beginnings of hyperinflation in Q4 2020. When food costs more (reduced supply, static demand), and when people have UBI, there's only one way for prices to go.

It's not going to be a fun second-half of 2020 for anyone in the EU.

And, to follow-up to the emerging economies prediction from last week, you're starting to see the absolute devastation of every developing economy that relies on agricultural exports. Argentina... one of the largest exporters of soy and corn... not going to be able to get their harvests in before their crops rot in significant amounts. And, they're not going to be able to export goods to paying customers for months due to the global logistics freeze.

Get yourselves and your families prepared for an economic situation like nothing anyone has ever seen before.