So someone who chooses BYU when they have "better" options might be doing it because they know they might not be able up compete for playing time. Or maybe they don't want to compete and it's a mentality thing. Either way it might lead to us getting selected against.

It's similar to adverse selection. People who know they need insurance are the most likely to buy insurance.

You bring up a good point though. Some will come to BYU because there's no place like BYU even though they have better options. But I think when we miss on highly recruited players, it's often because they know they can do better. When we get them, it MIGHT be because they know they can't.

I did think about Cooper Bateman when I posted. Obviously didn't pan out for him. There will be counter examples of course in both directions. Just a theory I have. Would be hard to prove.