I believe that covid is killing a significant number of people slightly earlier than they would have already died (but died later in the same year). If that is true, we might see a decrease in excess deaths towards the end of the year (because people who have died earlier from covid are removed from the population numerator later in the year when they would have died from something else).

I'm surprised there wasn't more emphasis on other types of deaths. My guess is the covid response would lead to decreases in other infectious diseases, decreases in traffic deaths, increases in suicides, increases in screening preventable diseases, decreases in necessary hospital visits that might lead to early death (appendicitis), etc.