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Jul 2, 2020
10:10:52am
SweetBabyG Starter
I have a couple concerns about that paper.
1) Simply counting the number of long-term conditions (and then using that to predict life expectancy) is not necessarily an indication of the severity of those conditions. Half of Europe's covid deaths are from assisted living facilities, indicating the people dying are likely very sick. A person living in an assisted living facility with two "long-term" conditions is likely in much worse shape than a person living on their own with two "long-term" conditions. Leaving out the severity of these comorbidities could lead to an overestimate of life expectancy.

2) The median age of death due to covid in Italy is 80-81 year old. A quick look at national life tables say that given you've lived to 80-81, you are predicted to live nine or ten more years. It worries me that the authors predicted 11 more years of life, particularly as we know the people dying had high number of comorbidities and had a high likelihood of living in an assisted living facilities. It makes it look like their study assumptions were such that the people dying from covid were healthier than the general population?

Two final points. 1) Lots of reputable epi modelers and economists saying the opposite thing as this paper, so I think the paper deserves a critical look. 2) Even using these author's data, I'd argue these data still prove my point that "that covid is killing a significant number of people slightly earlier than they would have already died." (this is apparent by looking at the bottom right corner of the figure you linked where a lot of 80+ individuals would have died within 0-2 years).
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Originally posted on Jul 2, 2020 at 10:10:52am
Message modified by SweetBabyG on Jul 2, 2020 at 10:11:55am
SweetBabyG
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