Mortgage applications have dropped dramatically starting in January and are trending down. This is an indicator that people cannot afford current prices. Demand is already taking a hit but its going largely unnoticed.

Supply is being artificially choked by stimulus. If even 50% of current forbearance end up listing their homes or are foreclosed on the supply would quadruple nationwide without any new construction. Values will drop in markets all over. Even if Utah remains unaffected by that due to low forbearance rates more buyers will shift to markets with better value.

The Utah unemployment rate has still doubled from 1 year ago and claims are above 2000 every week despite our economy being open for months now. Thinking that Utah can escape the economic difficulties facing almost every other market right now is a little more unrealistic than people are stating.