My FIL runs the homebuilding arm of a large Utah builder.

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Mar 1, 2021
4:20:17pm

rad dawg All-American

My FIL runs the homebuilding arm of a large Utah builder.

They along with many of their competitors have stopped new land purchases. Ownership doesn't like whats happening and are already seeing profitability issues with land values up so high. If you can't get zoned for high density you can't make any money.

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rad dawg

Bio page: rad dawg
Joined: Nov 7, 2010
Last login: May 8, 2024
Total posts: 12,704 (47 FO)

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Messages

Author

Time

For those who think Utah is in this temporary housing bubble....

macdizzle

3/1/21 3:34pm

Those are all factors, but the biggest factor is insanely low rates. Once rates go back up, demand for housing will

Pimpin4Paradise

3/1/21 3:38pm

^ if rates go back up

Heath Squashwell

3/1/21 3:40pm

“If”? Are you suggesting they will not?

Big Daddy D

3/1/21 3:46pm

I don't expect rates to increase because our federal government can't afford it!

DoseOfReality

3/1/21 3:57pm

At the tipping point there is no other option. We are not quite there obviously.

Big Daddy D

3/1/21 7:11pm

my brother the liberal thinks we don't have to worry about the debt bc a country

BYU Grounds

3/1/21 7:44pm

actually there is a huge difference between a currency issuer going into debt

Nat Gas Man

3/1/21 7:48pm

that is exactly what he said, when times are good "print" money to spend, pay de

BYU Grounds

3/1/21 10:13pm

I know rates will rise. But certainly in times like these it's hard to see.

Heath Squashwell

3/1/21 10:09pm

When

Coug-de-Lyon

3/1/21 4:30pm

Great point. I don't know that it dramatically changes overall demand, but just

macdizzle

3/1/21 3:41pm

Agreed. This will be the result of increased rates. Demand stay strong. Bang for

TarCoug

3/1/21 3:44pm

$500k homes are no longer worth that if there is nobody to buy them. So it's still a function of supply and demand.

Pimpin4Paradise

3/1/21 3:45pm

Plenty of Californians willing to pay that still

Mike Honcho

3/1/21 4:23pm

This makes sense but historically rates go up because there is inflation which

johnnybyu

3/1/21 4:34pm

It didn't slow when it was in the 4's. I doubt it will slow enough to mean

3/1/21 4:51pm

^This, especially for the >400k range

flyzag

3/1/21 6:37pm

Why can't supply catch up? Won't more builders jump on the wagon?

Ryan M

3/1/21 3:42pm

Why haven't they to this point? What I've heard them say is they can't secure

macdizzle

3/1/21 3:44pm

There are greater physical challenges than other western cities with explosive

Diddy

3/1/21 3:44pm

Because people don't like high density housing next to their house.

3/1/21 3:46pm

My FIL runs the homebuilding arm of a large Utah builder.

rad dawg

3/1/21 4:20pm

The other issue is water rights. Some water basins are already fully allocated.

DwigtA2RM

3/1/21 4:37pm

These giant things called mountains. Area is maxed out except WJ.

3/1/21 4:48pm

The cost of building has gone up a lot as well

RockyBalboa

3/1/21 3:44pm

Lehi high school went 20 million over budget due to construction costs...

1984coug

3/4/21 6:43am

What?! Oh crap that’s gonna be another bond

BYU Grounds

3/4/21 9:23am

I hate buying during the peak, so please keep going up.

TarCoug

3/1/21 3:45pm

I heard this before. You may be right. But we are going on 13 year bull run in R

Iman23

3/1/21 3:46pm

Something inevitably happens. It will go down but maybe not very sharply in Utah

pink22

3/1/21 4:01pm

Truth. There is a long line of out of state buyers waiting to buy here and no inventory.

dryflyelk

3/1/21 3:46pm

Salaries in Utah aren't high enough to justify the house prices and investors

donnerstag

3/1/21 3:49pm

Also lots of kids and people that still like having kids. Internal growth projections were already strong

Grit for Brains

3/1/21 3:53pm

Yeah...they’re crazy.

pink22

3/1/21 4:02pm

A couple of things that people wont look at.

rad dawg

3/1/21 4:04pm

I suspect the recent mortgage demand drop is more refinance than purchase

DC12

3/1/21 4:06pm

Refinance data is separate. Those are down even more.

rad dawg

3/1/21 4:09pm

Interesting- not sure what to make if that because demand still seems so strong

DC12

3/1/21 4:22pm

One other factor is the number of Airbnb properties

Nat Gas Man

3/1/21 4:08pm

what about when y'all move to Missouri

fulano

3/1/21 4:07pm

sellers don't want to be buyers right now, so they're not listing their homes.

BYUFBDAD

3/1/21 4:11pm

Buy high, sell low. This is the way.

Coug-de-Lyon

3/1/21 4:34pm

Why do you believe the California migration won’t slow down?

lilpenny

3/1/21 4:41pm

its always temporary BUT the factors you named makes the question,"when will it

BYU Grounds

3/1/21 4:54pm

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