and it can play the nest or worst of all worlds. I like Independence for that reason. However I also think that if BYU forgoes a Big 12 invitation, it means that the AD and Admin have determined we would not make more money. Cash is always the bottom line. Having said that and knowing we just signed a contract with ESPN, it seems like BYU would be in a good negotiating position to wrangle out some guarantees IF ESPN prefers BYU to stay independent. It might just quibble to save a couple of million dollars over the next five years. Or it may recognize that BYU is more valuable to a rebuilt Big 12 because of what it adds to that conference, knowing ultimately it makes all Big12 members more valuable.

The question is what does ESPN want to do? Fox in this case is simply following suit. If the Big 12 presidents stick together, and they really may not have a choice for the many reasons I mentioned earlier, then it would be good for BYU and the Big 12 to hook-up. If that fails, BYU already has a proven model for going back to independence. So if an invitation is offered, you jump at it and negotiate a much better payout all the way around. BUT, it will certainly NOT be a better payout for the present eight P5's. I suspect even with the addition of BYU their revenues will drop into the $20m range if they are fortunate. If the existing group can negotiate some home and home scheduling agreements with the ACC, B1G and SEC so that they aren't just playing each other, then they could master a substantial home fraction of their current right value. But that's a big if. BYU is at least big enough and popular enough to fill a lot of that void.

But this also means those programs have to stop scheduling boot-lickers and short bus programs for all their non-conference games. They are going to have to beef up their marketability and that means all of them will need to schedule a lot tougher than they are used to. Again, BYU is already doing that. The Big-12 is going to need BYU, Bret McMurphy's dislike aside. BYU doesn't necessarily need the Big-12, but for the right offer would be a good fit in most ways and the little idiosyncrasies can be overcome.