Scenario 1: The kick is blocked and run back for two points, then ASU scores a TD and a two point conversion in about a minute. It is extremely rare that PATs are blocked an run back. I would like to see the numbers.
Scenario 2: You make the kick. BYU is up 11, now ASU as about a minute to score 11 points, presumably TD, 2 point conversion, FG. Very difficult, but happens. I'd like to see the numbers.
Scenario 3: You take a knee. ASU has about a minute to score 10 points. TD, PAT, FG.
All of these are so rare I'm not sure you can put a lot of faith in what the numbers say. I'm not sure I could be convinced one is better than the other.