I know we are really close to getting him

Best case, our odds would be 1/3rd, assuming the other two don't have an advantage. Which they likely would as the two that don't have him coming in behind an incumbent QB.

More realistically, we have a 10-15% chance. Which is exciting for sure. But we're starting to talk as if we're the leader in the clubhouse and that he's ours to lose, that he's about to sign with us.

And I think that's why it feels like such a massive sudden change - because we overreact. If our chances were 5% a week ago and now are 20%, that's a major difference and should be celebrated. But beforehand we acted like it was 0% and now we act like it's 75%. So a small change in likelihood becomes a HUGE swing in our attitudes "all of a sudden"