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May 20, 2022
11:22:09am
krindorr Intervention Needed
A rundown of where we stand on all of these

One important caveat here; it drives me nuts to refer to players as 4-stars when one recruiting service calls them a 4-star. That's like claiming a national title because one 'major selector' named you the national champ (see Utah and UCF with Anderson & Hester) or claiming to be All-American when you were mentioned in one of the hundreds of publications that name them...but not any of the 5 that matter. Because of that I'll be using the 247 composite throughout.

1. Hunter Clegg (4-star EDGE, 92.45, 186 nationally): Clegg has 7 finalists - BYU, Utah, Baylor, Auburn, Stanford, LSU, and USC.  The noise on him has been that he's leaning towards Utah, and he currently has 3 crystal balls to Utah - from Blair Angulo (Mountain Region Recruiting Analyst and the most accurate), Steve Bartle (Utah insider) and Jeff Hansen (BYU insider).  His brother is also playing at Utah as a PWO.  With all that, Utah has to be considered the clear favorite for him.  It's Utah vs the field at this point.  

That said, I wonder if too many are writing him off as a possibility for BYU.  It's worth noting that (despite living in American Fork, right near Provo), he's still taking one of his 5 official visits to BYU.  That could be just throwing BYU a bone, but he's also very close with Lyons, Snowden, and Fano.  If those 4 want to play together, it's likely either BYU or Utah, so I think BYU may be in the 2nd position at the moment.  I'd loosely estimate this one at Utah 50%, BYU 20%, Other 30%

2. Cormani McClain (5-star CB, 99.90, #3 nationally): Cormani has a top 8 - BYU, Alabama, Miami, Georgia, Oregon, Florida, Ohio State, Michigan. With all due respect to us, BYU's the clear outlier in that group. He has 3 crystal balls to Florida, so it appears they are the favorites. Beyond that Cormani was giving a lot of love to BYU early in the year, but hasn't been as much recently.  It's awesome to be mentioned for a guy like this, but (especially in a new NIL world) trying to get him away from Alabama and Georgia, or his home-state teams of Florida and Miami.  If all 8 had equal odds, that would be 12.5%.  Reality is that the chances of Cormani to BYU are likely <5%

3. Spencer Fano (4-star OT, 94.72, #120 nationally): Not listed in the article because he hasn't put out a "Top X" list, but including him here since the article initially did.  247 has him listed as warm for 4 teams - Utah, BYU, Miami, Oregon (not sure why that's the order).  He has two crystal balls to BYU, one from Blair Angulo and one from Jeff Hansen.  They're both a bit older and relatively low confidence, but BYU still has to be the favorite.  Especially considering that his brother Logan is currently at BYU.  Spencer hasn't been as vocal on social media as Clegg or Lyons, but he does seem to have a connection with Clegg, Lyons and Esera, so if BYU gets him he could help pull others.  Right now, there's not enough noise/buzz to be too confident, but I haven't seen anything to indicate BYU isn't the favorite.  I'd loosely estimate BYU 45%, Utah/Miami/Oregon 10% each, Other 25% - BYU's odds here are a bit lower, just given the uncertainty, but much more likely than any one other school.

4. Smith Snowden (3-star CB, 87.78, #495 nationally): Son of former BYU RB Will Snowden, you'd expect BYU to be the leader for him, but there's been some subtle negativity from him or his dad towards BYU while they've lauded Utah. Snowden's top schools are BYU, Utah, Stanford, Washington State, Colorado, Oregon State, Northwestern, and Utah State.  He has 4 crystal balls - two for Utah and two for BYU.  The two for BYU are an old one (with 10 confidence!) from a Utah State guy and one with low confidence from Jeff Hansen (BYU Insider), while the 2 for Utah are from Blair Angulo (high confidence) and Steve Bartle (Ute insider, medium confidence).  Given that the Utah State guy has a terrible track record (even on ones he calls locks or high confidence) and that Angulo is the most plugged-in, I think it's fair to say that Utah is the favorite.  This one feels like it's Utah or BYU most likely, but in deference to the sheer number of 'others' still in the mix, I'll estimate him as Utah 45%, BYU 30%, Other 25%

5. Liona Lefau (4-star LB, 90.18, #283 nationally):  Lefau has listed BYU, Utah, Oklahoma, Michigan, Oregon, Texas, USC, and Washington as his top schools, but 247 only includes BYU, Utah, Oregon, Texas and USC as schools that he is warm on.  At this point, Lefau may be best known (on CougarBoard at least) for the unfortunate "ordination" picture taken while he was on a recruiting visit at Utah.  Really hard to guess how that would influence his perception of Utah and/or BYU, so I don't have a good feel for where he'll end up.  Utah and BYU both do a great job recruiting his HS and he's got connections at both. He grew up a BYU fan, so I'm mostly going to punt on this prediction, but give BYU the slight advantage.  Let's call it BYU 20% chance, then a 15% chance for each of Utah, Oregon, Texas, USC, and 25% for Other (including Michigan, Washington, Oklahoma who are listed in his Top8, but not showing as warm on 247).

6. Walker Lyons (4-star TE, 96.6, #74 nationally): Lyons has 6 finalists listed - BYU, Utah, USC, Ohio St, Alabama, Stanford.  Plus one of his 5 official visits is scheduled for BYU (at the same time as Hunter Clegg, a good buddy of his).  Lyons has only one crystal ball, a low-confidence one from Jeff Hansen to BYU 2 months ago. Overall, this is a tough one to call.  He referenced this being a 'business decision' and if it comes down to NIL then USC, Ohio St, Alabama are in a different stratosphere than BYU and Utah.  But BYU and Utah are more likely to have him playing with his friends (Clegg, Snowden etc, both of whom seem to be leaning Utah).  Utah wasn't on his initial list but seem to have come on strong, as he seems to post more often and more positively about them than any other team.  Honestly, it's pretty easy to make an argument for or against any of these teams, so it seems fairest to me, to give them all about equal chance of getting him.  In deference to the crystal ball, I'll make BYU the favorite, but this one is basically a 6-way coin-flip. 20% for BYU, 15% each for Utah, USC, Ohio St, Alabama, Stanford and the remaining 5% for Other.

7. Jackson Bowers (4-star TE, 90.84, #246 nationally): Bowers has seven finalists - BYU, Arizona, Ole Miss, Alabama, Washington, Oregon, and Auburn.  That said, only BYU, Arizona and Washington are listed as Warm on 247 and Bowers has repeatedly been positive towards BYU and visited numerous times.  He also has one crystal ball to BYU (albeit from the BYU insider and with low confidence).  I actually think he has a REALLY good chance of ending up at BYU.  It also helps that he's listed as the #14 TE nationally, which puts him just outside that super-elite top tier where NIL money might get absolutely ridiculous (by comparison, Lyons is #4 TE and top 100 nationally).  Let's call it 40% BYU, 20% Arizona, 15% Washington, 25% Other

8. Emmanuel Waller (3-star DL/EDGE, 87.88, #484 nationally): Waller has exactly one finalist - he's a BYU commit.  There's always a question of if a guy will flip, but he seems pretty unlikely to do so. From this board, it's clear he spent a long time waiting on a BYU offer and then pretty much immediately committed when he got it.  The one argument on him potentially flipping is if he has a big season and gets some higher-end offers (particularly from Alabama and/or Auburn, given his proximity) since he's yet to get any high-end P5 offers (only BYU, West Virginia, Indiana, Wake Forest, and Mississippi St).  Being cautious, I'll say 85% BYU, 15% other

9. Siale Esera (4-star DL/LB, 91.24, #2287 nationally):  Esera was removed from the initial article because he hasn't put out a Top X or given much insight into what school he wants.  He has some higher end offers - Michigan, Nebraska, Oregon, Tennessee, but BYU also has some advantages with location, that BYU was one of his dream schools growing up, and that his dad works there.  Given the lack of information, there has to be a lot of unknown, but taking a wild shot, I'll say BYU 35%, Other/Unknown 65% and that might be underestimating BYU.

Totalling those odds for BYU together gives 2.95 of these recruits, which would be a great get.  The one caveat is that this 2.95 number isn't likely representative.  If Clegg goes to BYU, then Lyons is more likely to do so, then Snowden is more likely to do so and Lefau is more likely as well.  But, by the same token, it's possible that Clegg (or another) decides NOT to come and that has cascading reprecussions in the same way, leading others to choose elsewhere.

krindorr
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krindorr
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