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Jun 24, 2022
7:41:32am
krindorr Truly Addicted User
Considering all the centers available on the market - Rudy isn't option #1...or even option #2

As someone who is a fan of a team that needs a center, here's why the return for him is going to be lower than the Jazz (or especially Jazz fans) want, and why I think he doesn't get traded.

Right now, in a league moving away from centers, there is a veritable flood of quality centers available.

Rudy Gobert
DeAndre Ayton
John Collins
Myles Turner
Clint Capela
Mitchell Robinson

In a vacuum, it's easy to look at that list and say Gobert is the best.  And he clearly IS the best player.  But he's not the best option to pursue - not when you consider age, salary, impact, trade cost, etc.  So let's break down each of these options assuming a pretty terrible Gobert return of Tim Hardaway (mostly for salary purposes), Dorian Finney-Smith and 2 first rounders.  Given that trade cost (which I expect most fans here would turn up their nose at) and the attached salaries, which of these players does it make sense to go after?

Rudy Gobert
Pros: Flat out a generational defensive player.  Frankly hard to overstate his impact on that end
Cons/Concerns: Costs an average $42M/yr for the next 4 years, is on the wrong side of 30, lack of offensive game hinders spacing (though he's a very good screener at least), demonstrated difficulty/inability to translate defensive impact into playoff setting.  Asking price is probably a good player and 2 firsts.

DeAndre Ayton
Pros: Freakish athletic talent that can contribute on both ends (though not as strong a defender as some other names on this list).  Youngest player on this list (only 24) and has a capable jump shot to serve as a threat and help with spacing.  Free agent means no trade compensation innately required (though it's likely that the Suns use a S+T to move him)
Cons/Concerns: Some worries about attitude/effort after getting a big payday.  Puzzling that the Suns (who know him best) DIDN'T give him a max, so raises questions.  Also have to worry since he's restricted that if you try to sign him, you'll just tie up your free agency dollars before Suns inevitably match.
Contract Details: Max contract would be 4 yrs/$131M (basically $34M/yr)

Comparison to Gobert: 
Gobert > Ayton... but
Ayton + Christian Wood (from salary savings) + Dorian Finney Smith + Tim Hardaway + 2 1sts > Gobert 

Myles Turner
Pros: A center who shoots 35% from 3 on high volume while leading the league in blocked shots?  Yes please.  Spreading the floor and protecting the rim seems like the perfect fit for today's NBA.  Plus he's only 26.
Cons/Concerns: If he's so perfect, why have the Pacers been so mediocre?  Also... Turner has played only half of each of the last seasons with injury concerns so that's a big worry.  Plus he's due for another contract so could be a short term rental if you can't work out an extension
Contract Details: Projected contract extension value has been somewhere around 4yrs/$96M (or $24M/yr)

Comparison to Gobert:
Gobert > Turner... but
Turner + Jalen Brunson (from $20M salary savings) + DFS + 1st (using the same DFS, Hardaway, 2 1sts package for Gobert, but assuming Hardaway and a 1st is the cost for Turner) > Gobert

John Collins
Pros/Cons: Basically Myles Turner with a few modifications.  Slightly fewer blocks, but more rebounds and more offensive game.  Also has injury concerns, but maybe not as concerning long-term?  On a $25M/yr deal for 4 more years, so even the money is basically the same.  A year younger though and already signed ot the extension so less uncertainty.  Asking price might be slightly higher though?  Whatever, basically read the entry above.

Clint Capela
Pros: Some similarities to Gobert...but not as exceptional a defender.  Great rebounder though and solid rim protection. Slightly more offensive game than Gobert and still only 28.
Cons/Concerns: Defensive impact has slipped. Similar to Gobert he doesn't space the floor - basically he's clearly a lesser version of Gobert
Contract Details: Locked up for the next 3 seasons at average of $20M/yr

Comparison to Gobert:
Gobert > Capela

Capela + Brogdon/Barnes/Jarrett Allen (all guys making $20M-$25M) + DFS + 1st (again assuming Hardaway + 1st is the cost for Capela) ≈ Gobert

Mitchell Robinson
Pros: Rim protection and high end defensive impact (not at Gobert's level obviously, but has been better than Capela recently) with massive wingspan.  Also an efficient interior finisher. Unrestricted free agent means you don't have to give anything up (though many teams over the cap would need to work it as a S+T to fit him).  Very young at 24.
Cons/Concerns: Zero spacing on the offensive end.  Not the rebounder Gobert is, generally limited upside due to lower-level of athleticism as a ground-bound center
Contract Details: Projected contract is somewhere around 4yrs/$45M (or around $11M/yr)

Comparison to Gobert:
Gobert >> Robinson... but

Robinson + CJ McCollum/Jrue Holiday/Bradley Beal (guys making $30ishM/yr - alternatively any young player on a max) + DFS + Hardaway + 2 1sts > Gobert

This message has been modified
Originally posted on Jun 24, 2022 at 7:41:32am
Message modified by krindorr on Jun 24, 2022 at 7:50:18am
Message modified by krindorr on Jun 24, 2022 at 7:54:37am
Message modified by krindorr on Jun 24, 2022 at 7:57:31am
krindorr
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krindorr
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