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May 16, 2024
4:09
:59
pm
2FarGone
No One of Consequence
Consumer finished goods are way down. Housing prices forecasted to plummet in July.
I love when Dems respond and tell me how their stocks went up so "all is well".
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2FarGone
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2FarGone
Joined
Mar 2, 2001
Last login
Jun 1, 2024
Total posts
46,117 (643 FO)
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Messages
Author
Time
Major slow down coming?
insanobueno
May 16, 4:00pm
I am have been debating if I should pull the trigger and start building my shop
cougarfann888
May 16, 4:01pm
I’ve been wrong the last 18 months. I called the top and liquidated most of
MormonThug
May 16, 4:06pm
You and me both
Himni
May 16, 4:25pm
Wait, there's gifting at girl's nights? Glad my wife doesn't do those.
fredy
May 16, 4:03pm
I've seen the slowing with my business as well. Marketing is usually the first
Benfica1
May 16, 4:05pm
Lots of layoffs in tech the last year. Feels like the attorney job market is
Pierre Delecto
May 16, 4:06pm
Yay! Inflation is on the retreat!
Kilgore Trout
May 16, 4:06pm
There will be momentum if it looks like Trump will win in November.
dYrtbYkerYder
May 16, 4:08pm
You’re spot on
lilpenny
May 16, 4:09pm
Consumer finished goods are way down. Housing prices forecasted to plummet in July.
2FarGone
May 16, 4:09pm
Where’d you see that housing market forecast?
macdizzle
May 16, 4:19pm
Industry guys, not published.
2FarGone
May 16, 4:25pm
Interesting. I have a bunch of friends in the industry and none of them are
SuperTank
May 16, 4:40pm
Same. My contacts are confident it’s going to go higher the second rates drop
macdizzle
May 16, 5:30pm
Oh, you're assuming rates are going to drop . . .
2FarGone
May 16, 5:41pm
100% they drop in the next 12 months. even if they don’t, prices won’t plummet.
macdizzle
May 16, 5:48pm
Then why are they dropping now?
Brisket
May 16, 6:01pm
They aren’t. Up 4% YoY for existing sales in the US. Utah is about 3% higher YoY
macdizzle
May 16, 6:09pm
Then why in the last month are the prices of most the houses we are looking at in Utah dropping like a rock?
Brisket
May 16, 9:45pm
Not sure. I’m just looking at the official data. You can Google it too.
macdizzle
May 16, 9:46pm
Okay, whose official data? Also, saying that houses are selling in any area is meaningless.
Brisket
May 16, 10:07pm
National Association of Realtors. They put out an official median home price
macdizzle
May 16, 10:22pm
And also, I said above it’s slowing down (fewer houses are selling), but prices
macdizzle
May 16, 10:24pm
Last nationwide "at-scale" data listed is from Q1. It would appear that April and May are turning out different.
Brisket
May 17, 12:52am
It’ll be interesting to see. But the last data we have shows prices still rising
macdizzle
May 17, 7:31am
The last NAR data for state and county level in Utah is for Q4...of 2023. So, 5 1/2 months ago.
Brisket
May 17, 12:48am
I’m not married to NAR, find better statewide or national data, I don’t care.
macdizzle
May 17, 7:33am
If rates drop we have much bigger problems.
rad dawg
May 17, 7:37am
A couple of points with this my Utah RE buddy pointed out.
rad dawg
May 17, 7:45am
That's how inflation is reduced. The question is, how deep with it cut.
txblue
May 16, 4:12pm
The housing market is super rate sensitive rate now. When rates increase for a
Pepe
May 16, 4:27pm
Can you imagine if the 30 year fixed dropped a percent or two? The pent up
txblue
May 16, 4:32pm
Still tons of buyers though.
rad dawg
May 16, 4:34pm
Yeah, totally. Which is why I don't think an increase in supply would result in
txblue
May 16, 4:42pm
I think it's really scary for the markets like Austin and some in Florida
rad dawg
May 16, 4:55pm
3 homes for sale on my street, all sold 1st weekend with multiple offers.
IGlowInTheDark
May 16, 4:12pm
You are in WA right? That seems odd and my localized to your area? In Southern
Chester Copperpot
May 16, 4:29pm
Northeast
IGlowInTheDark
May 16, 4:31pm
What is driving it? People leave Seattle? The high end in my area is being
Chester Copperpot
May 16, 4:42pm
High end is moving, low end is moving. Middle is sitting.
2FarGone
May 16, 4:29pm
My neighborhood has barely had any movement for a year and a half now in Utah
CSoul
May 16, 4:44pm
<< Deleted >>
Buffalo
May 16, 4:12pm
There’s two possible explanations
lilpenny
May 16, 4:25pm
It’ll be interesting to see in a month or two, and then through end of year.
Spindash
May 16, 4:20pm
That's very interesting and very scary.
rad dawg
May 16, 4:29pm
It’s crazy to think there was $2 tn in liquidity that had nowhere else to go.
Spindash
May 16, 4:37pm
I had no clue. Really helps explain a lot of things though.
rad dawg
May 16, 4:55pm
It really does. It also explains why QT really hasn't hit conventionally yet.
Spindash
May 16, 5:13pm
I've been scratching my head watching the fed.
rad dawg
May 16, 6:25pm
<< Deleted >>
Buffalo
May 16, 5:58pm
Predictions are tough, and I'd probably be wrong.
Spindash
May 17, 1:01am
<< Deleted >>
Buffalo
May 17, 10:12am
Hey, ChatGPT, summarize this post to make it understandable to a 7th grader.
BlooGeek
May 16, 4:33pm
First I've heard of these. Interesting. Wow, take a look at this chart to validate SD's post
Zenoch
May 16, 4:39pm
Can someone please explain overnight reverse repos?
ALUF 1990
May 16, 5:01pm
Sure
Swag Kazekage
May 16, 5:15pm
Very helpful. Thx! I understand the lenders position in a cash rich
ALUF 1990
May 16, 9:11pm
Here's another link that details it in the context of QT and the macro picture:
Spindash
May 17, 1:08am
For those of us that don't know what QT means - here's a good explanation
Zenoch
May 16, 5:59pm
I would say the problem right now is that the Fed has no idea what they are doing or what the effects will be.
Brisket
May 16, 9:58pm
I agree, I don't think they or anyone else knows how QT of this scale will work.
Spindash
May 17, 1:23am
Still looking for work 10 weeks in. 0 prospects
pegushin
May 17, 8:09am
The job market is so weird right now
macdizzle
May 17, 8:18am
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