Oh, you're assuming rates are going to drop . . .

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May 16, 2024
5:41:43pm

2FarGone No One of Consequence

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2FarGone

Bio page: 2FarGone
Joined: Mar 2, 2001
Last login: Jun 1, 2024
Total posts: 46,117 (643 FO)

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Messages

Author

Time

Major slow down coming?

insanobueno

May 16, 4:00pm

I am have been debating if I should pull the trigger and start building my shop

cougarfann888

May 16, 4:01pm

I’ve been wrong the last 18 months. I called the top and liquidated most of

MormonThug

May 16, 4:06pm

You and me both

Himni

May 16, 4:25pm

Wait, there's gifting at girl's nights? Glad my wife doesn't do those.

fredy

May 16, 4:03pm

I've seen the slowing with my business as well. Marketing is usually the first

Benfica1

May 16, 4:05pm

Lots of layoffs in tech the last year. Feels like the attorney job market is

Pierre Delecto

May 16, 4:06pm

Yay! Inflation is on the retreat!

Kilgore Trout

May 16, 4:06pm

There will be momentum if it looks like Trump will win in November.

dYrtbYkerYder

May 16, 4:08pm

You’re spot on

lilpenny

May 16, 4:09pm

Consumer finished goods are way down. Housing prices forecasted to plummet in July.

2FarGone

May 16, 4:09pm

Where’d you see that housing market forecast?

macdizzle

May 16, 4:19pm

Industry guys, not published.

2FarGone

May 16, 4:25pm

Interesting. I have a bunch of friends in the industry and none of them are

SuperTank

May 16, 4:40pm

Same. My contacts are confident it’s going to go higher the second rates drop

macdizzle

May 16, 5:30pm

Oh, you're assuming rates are going to drop . . .

2FarGone

May 16, 5:41pm

100% they drop in the next 12 months. even if they don’t, prices won’t plummet.

macdizzle

May 16, 5:48pm

Then why are they dropping now?

Brisket

May 16, 6:01pm

They aren’t. Up 4% YoY for existing sales in the US. Utah is about 3% higher YoY

macdizzle

May 16, 6:09pm

Then why in the last month are the prices of most the houses we are looking at in Utah dropping like a rock?

Brisket

May 16, 9:45pm

Not sure. I’m just looking at the official data. You can Google it too.

macdizzle

May 16, 9:46pm

Okay, whose official data? Also, saying that houses are selling in any area is meaningless.

Brisket

May 16, 10:07pm

National Association of Realtors. They put out an official median home price

macdizzle

May 16, 10:22pm

And also, I said above it’s slowing down (fewer houses are selling), but prices

macdizzle

May 16, 10:24pm

Last nationwide "at-scale" data listed is from Q1. It would appear that April and May are turning out different.

Brisket

May 17, 12:52am

It’ll be interesting to see. But the last data we have shows prices still rising

macdizzle

May 17, 7:31am

The last NAR data for state and county level in Utah is for Q4...of 2023. So, 5 1/2 months ago.

Brisket

May 17, 12:48am

I’m not married to NAR, find better statewide or national data, I don’t care.

macdizzle

May 17, 7:33am

If rates drop we have much bigger problems.

rad dawg

May 17, 7:37am

A couple of points with this my Utah RE buddy pointed out.

rad dawg

May 17, 7:45am

That's how inflation is reduced. The question is, how deep with it cut.

txblue

May 16, 4:12pm

The housing market is super rate sensitive rate now. When rates increase for a

Pepe

May 16, 4:27pm

Can you imagine if the 30 year fixed dropped a percent or two? The pent up

txblue

May 16, 4:32pm

Still tons of buyers though.

rad dawg

May 16, 4:34pm

Yeah, totally. Which is why I don't think an increase in supply would result in

txblue

May 16, 4:42pm

I think it's really scary for the markets like Austin and some in Florida

rad dawg

May 16, 4:55pm

3 homes for sale on my street, all sold 1st weekend with multiple offers.

IGlowInTheDark

May 16, 4:12pm

You are in WA right? That seems odd and my localized to your area? In Southern

Chester Copperpot

May 16, 4:29pm

Northeast

IGlowInTheDark

May 16, 4:31pm

What is driving it? People leave Seattle? The high end in my area is being

Chester Copperpot

May 16, 4:42pm

High end is moving, low end is moving. Middle is sitting.

2FarGone

May 16, 4:29pm

My neighborhood has barely had any movement for a year and a half now in Utah

CSoul

May 16, 4:44pm

<< Deleted >>

Buffalo

May 16, 4:12pm

There’s two possible explanations

lilpenny

May 16, 4:25pm

It’ll be interesting to see in a month or two, and then through end of year.

Spindash

May 16, 4:20pm

That's very interesting and very scary.

rad dawg

May 16, 4:29pm

It’s crazy to think there was $2 tn in liquidity that had nowhere else to go.

Spindash

May 16, 4:37pm

I had no clue. Really helps explain a lot of things though.

rad dawg

May 16, 4:55pm

It really does. It also explains why QT really hasn't hit conventionally yet.

Spindash

May 16, 5:13pm

I've been scratching my head watching the fed.

rad dawg

May 16, 6:25pm

<< Deleted >>

Buffalo

May 16, 5:58pm

Predictions are tough, and I'd probably be wrong.

Spindash

May 17, 1:01am

<< Deleted >>

Buffalo

May 17, 10:12am

Hey, ChatGPT, summarize this post to make it understandable to a 7th grader.

BlooGeek

May 16, 4:33pm

First I've heard of these. Interesting. Wow, take a look at this chart to validate SD's post

Zenoch

May 16, 4:39pm

Can someone please explain overnight reverse repos?

ALUF 1990

May 16, 5:01pm

Sure

Swag Kazekage

May 16, 5:15pm

Very helpful. Thx! I understand the lenders position in a cash rich

ALUF 1990

May 16, 9:11pm

Here's another link that details it in the context of QT and the macro picture:

Spindash

May 17, 1:08am

For those of us that don't know what QT means - here's a good explanation

Zenoch

May 16, 5:59pm

I would say the problem right now is that the Fed has no idea what they are doing or what the effects will be.

Brisket

May 16, 9:58pm

I agree, I don't think they or anyone else knows how QT of this scale will work.

Spindash

May 17, 1:23am

Still looking for work 10 weeks in. 0 prospects

pegushin

May 17, 8:09am

The job market is so weird right now

macdizzle

May 17, 8:18am

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