P12 does not like LHN. That was a deal breaker last time around. B1G wont take OU unless they are AAU. They would take Kansas, but Texas fails the contiguous test. They ARE AAU though - will be interesting to watch for sure.
I agree that the best/most likely destination for OU/OSU is the SEC. They are basically in SEC territory and you solve the "go together" problem. I also agree that teams in the B12 will get sick of Texas at some point. In fact, evidence indicates they are already there.
ACC only needs to replace UVA IF they leave. Best choice would be WVU. I have an easy easy way that ACC can include ND into their conf championship structure while honoring the 5 game agreement. it might be too long to explain here but I will send it to you if you want.
Re Texas and Oklahoma to SEC, I agree with you that Oklahoma and Oklahoma St, are a political matched pair if the SEC comes calling. The money disparity of the SEC compared to everyone else is hard to ignore.
Greed or jealousy can explode the B12. Sometimes it is not about "what makes sense." (WVU to B12 case in point! haha).
Texas IS lucky in that they are desirable by EVERYONE. Still the grant of rights will have to expire before anything happens.
Thanks for chiming in!