Yes, the PAC changed their bylaws and now only require 75% majority vote to add a school.

Overall, I feel like you have a good analysis, the future of the Big 12 largely depends on what Texas and Oklahoma decide to do. The advantage the Big 12 has is the Longhorn Network; Texas will have a hard time giving that up and no other P5 conference will allow it. I actually think Oklahoma might be the school that leave the Big 12 first; they have been shown signs of being unhappy and did try to join the PAC after A&M went to the SEC.

The one thing I might add, I can see Texas going to the B1G -- you're right that they would have issues because of control. What might get them over the control issue is that the B1G seems to have the money plus academics -- Texas would like to be a part of the CIC (Big 10 academic group).

I get tired of the posters who try to claim Texas will go to the SEC; there is bad blood between the SEC and Texas, at least in part because of what happened when the SWC broke up. The SEC is pretty much the last place Texas is going to want to go; particularly now, since they would be "following little brother" A&M. Oklahoma also has some issues with the SEC, though not as deep as Texas.

For Oklahoma, it is more academics related. If Oklahoma makes a move, they want to go to a conference that will improve their academic standing -- meaning the PAC or the B1G (or even ACC), but neither conference will take Oklahoma without Texas. I really think if Texas went to the ACC, Oklahoma would want to go with them.

What seems clear, right now, is that if the B1G expands they will go east (meaning ACC teams) -- they've clearly stated that is where they want to go, largely because of the population of those states. My guess is Texas would stay in the Big 12, the ACC loses schools when the SEC moves to 16 to match the B1G, and the ACC will backfill with AAC teams. The question then is only if the Big 12 tries to take some of the leftover ACC teams -- which likely still doesn't help BYU.