I believe that BYU football is the perfect example of an organization playing near it's performance ceiling. One way to look at this is the winning percentage over the last 31 years since we won the National Championship:

* Coach Edwards: 16 years (.685 winning percentage)
* Coach Crowton: 4 years (.531 winning percentage)
* Coach Mendenhall: 11 years (.697 winning percentage)

Over large sample sizes, Edwards and Mendenhall basically had the same winning percentage since the National Championship. The pinnacle of BYU football was definitely the 1979-1984 period (.880 winning percentage) where we used a major strategic advantage (west coast passing attack) and NFL QBs to dominate college football. Eventually, that strategic advantage deteriorated as they tend to do, and we reverted back to the same team that wins about 2/3 of their games (Edwards had a .650 winning percentage from 72-78). We have basically stayed there ever since with the exception of the Crowton era (tough schedules, bare talent cupboard, questionable program oversight, and devastating suspensions killed us) when we only won about half our games.

So I understand the excitement over the Kalani/Detmer era; change is often fun and a source of hope. However, do most here actually believe that the Kalani/Detmer era will result in a winning percentage north of .700 ("next level")? I'm willing to go on record that I will be very surprised if it's higher than .700 and personally expect it to fall between .600 and .650. We are who we are and I am okay with it.

Anybody else want to go on record with a long-term winning percentage prediction for Kalani/Detmer?