(Meant for dingo below)

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Apr 10, 2020
12:08:55pm

Jay Rick All-American

(Meant for dingo below)

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Jay Rick

Previous username: jayriggity
Bio page: Jay Rick
Joined: Feb 10, 2013
Last login: Jun 15, 2024
Total posts: 28,234 (4,876 FO)

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Messages

Author

Time

That article about the UCSF "expert" panel people peddled on here a few weeks ago predicted 1.5 million US deaths from

YIsForBrigham Poo Poo

4/10/20 11:16am

What were the underlying assumptions made then regarding mitigation and have those assumptions materialized

Indy Coug

4/10/20 11:18am

You know predictions change when variables change, right?

SUAVO

4/10/20 11:21am

Meant for OP

SUAVO

4/10/20 11:21am

That not what the article said. The article, of course, has now been scrubbed from the internet once UCSF realized

4/10/20 11:24am

So, they said 1.5 million would die no matter what we did?

SUAVO

4/10/20 11:29am

Yes

4/10/20 11:32am

No

The Shazad

4/10/20 11:45am

Not sure. They said 40-70% of Americans would get it no matter what and that a 1% mortality rate would hold

4/10/20 11:21am

IMO, the models aren't the problem here, it's the assumptions which have been used. But let's be honest

Indy Coug

4/10/20 11:25am

There’s no reason to believe the mortality rate is much less than 1%. And

Jay Rick

4/10/20 11:49am

Alright. I'll put you down for the "1.5million Americans will die" prediction

4/10/20 11:51am

Fair enough, even though that’s not really what a said. But I guess

Jay Rick

4/10/20 11:54am

I'll say it's still a high possibility, yes.

ReyOso

4/10/20 11:29am

^this

flyzag

4/10/20 11:45am

Keep the economy on total lockdown for 18 months?

RexIdaCoug

4/10/20 11:56am

I think this has to be the answer. Allowing this thing to infect substantial %

Jay Rick

4/10/20 12:08pm

(Meant for dingo below)

Jay Rick

4/10/20 12:08pm

I agree, although I'm not entirely optimistic yet.

ReyOso

4/10/20 12:16pm

We will have other tools besides total lockdown

CallingDingo

4/10/20 12:02pm

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