depending on when we get a vaccine, there’s no reason to believe we won’t hit 50% infection.

So, yes, 1.5 mill is about right.

We’re playing against a clock right now. If we can drag it out long enough, then we get a vaccine before we get to 50% infection. But we don’t really know how long a vaccine will take.

Right now the highest estimates are that we’re at about 7% infection nationwide. But the more likely is 2-3%.