Because the Peach and Fiesta Bowls host the CFP and all of the bids to the Sugar, Rose, and Orange are contracted out to the P5 conferences...that leaves room only for the G5 champ and one at large team to play in the Cotton Bowl. Right now, we would have to finish ranked ahead of Florida (currently #9) to reach the Cotton Bowl.
No room for error. We almost certaintly would have to beat Washington and finish 11-1.
But, even then - as pointed out above, I doubt the CFP Selection committee would rank us ahead of any SEC or B1G schools or Texas or Notre Dame, as long as they have 10 or more wins.