A 10 point spread roughly equates to a 20% win probability, so you wouldn't expect a lot of them.

Oct 23, 2019
9:32:23am

Indy Coug Loquacious Lummox

What is the percentage chance a team wins the game based on the closing point spread?

Using SBR Forum's handy spread-to-moneyline converter, we came up with tables for favorite and underdog win percentages based on the point spread in the NFL, among other sports.

https://www.bettingtalk.com/win-probability-percentage-point-spread-nfl-nba/

This message has been modified

Originally posted on Oct 23, 2019 at 9:32:23am

Message modified by Indy Coug on Oct 23, 2019 at 9:32:45am

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Indy Coug

Bio page: Indy Coug
Joined: Dec 20, 2001
Last login: Jun 13, 2024
Total posts: 185,508 (9,874 FO)

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Messages

Author

Time

Top 10 unexpected wins (by the spread - w/ ties) - Spoiler: Kalani has 3

a priori

10/23/19 9:25am

15 games listed

Indy Coug

10/23/19 9:26am

Yep — w/ ties

a priori

10/23/19 9:27am

That not how ties are normally done. If you have two tied for 6 then

cougarfann888

10/23/19 9:46am

You're complaining because I provided more information?

a priori

10/23/19 9:47am

That number five is one reason why

cougarmanguy

10/23/19 9:27am

3 of the games listed were season openers

Indy Coug

10/23/19 9:28am

You've found a way to strike it rich and forget the SL Trib forever!

a priori

10/23/19 9:31am

I think the best approach is to avoid betting at all on openers

Indy Coug

10/23/19 9:33am

Sounds like you're leaving money on the table.

a priori

10/23/19 9:37am

I think there's a pretty good chance that the variance of actual vs predicted spreads is greater for openers

Indy Coug

10/23/19 9:39am

I'd have to do more work for week 1, but there is no statistical difference in

a priori

10/23/19 10:12am

No difference in mean or variance of absolute error when comparing games in

a priori

10/23/19 10:22am

Link?

cougarmanguy

10/23/19 10:27am

Here you go.

a priori

10/23/19 11:05am

If you really believe this, then you should go and make millions.

a priori

10/23/19 9:28am

Because they are without compelling data doesn’t mean

cougarmanguy

10/23/19 9:29am

So, your initial post was agnostic to the direction of the error?

a priori

10/23/19 9:37am

No, it seems you are reading into it something for the sake of arguing

cougarmanguy

10/23/19 9:43am

So, your initial post wasn't agnostic about the direction of the error?

a priori

10/23/19 9:46am

Speaking for the board collectively in your direction,

cougarmanguy

10/23/19 9:48am

Collectively?

a priori

10/23/19 9:54am

I’m done. It was clear.

cougarmanguy

10/23/19 9:55am

ANd that one was exaggerated based on prior year for BYU

BYU '80

10/23/19 11:26am

Sad, only 5 wins when the line is 10+ for the opponent.

MikeDitka'sStache

10/23/19 9:30am

A 10 point spread roughly equates to a 20% win probability, so you wouldn't expect a lot of them.

Indy Coug

10/23/19 9:32am

Has BYU played more or less than 25 such games? If its more than we also should

MikeDitka'sStache

10/23/19 9:33am

Well, a 10 point spread is 20% win probability. A 23.5 point spread is a lot lower than that

Indy Coug

10/23/19 9:34am

There's two ways to be a big underdog.

Corn Pop

10/23/19 10:02am

This is mainly because Kalani coached teams have low expectations. I mean that

Dynasty1

10/23/19 9:37am

great wins; great memories

hxmCougar2000

10/23/19 9:51am

New Mexico in 2005? Interesting. UNM ended as a 6-5 team, BYU ended as a 6-6

Santos L. Halper

10/23/19 10:18am

I forgot utah state was favored by 6 in 2013.

Conan

10/23/19 10:44am

<< Deleted >>

HarlemCoug

10/23/19 10:47am

RE: so weird that someone into sports data would put this together and not

a priori

10/23/19 11:07am

Would love to see the top unexpected losses.

The Old Y

10/23/19 12:29pm

This post is relevant.

a priori

10/23/19 12:39pm

I bet USF would be in there.....

Santos L. Halper

10/23/19 12:42pm

BYU was only a 4.5 favorite. It wouldn't make the list.

a priori

10/23/19 12:50pm

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