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Oct 23, 2019
9:46
:10
am
a priori
All-American
So, your initial post wasn't agnostic about the direction of the error?
In that case, you need to go make millions with this skill of yours.
This message has been modified
Originally posted on Oct 23, 2019 at 9:46:10am
Message modified by a priori on Oct 23, 2019 at 9:46:24am
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a priori
Previous username
Random Walk
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a priori
Joined
Sep 22, 2007
Last login
May 20, 2024
Total posts
36,956 (1,540 FO)
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Messages
Author
Time
Top 10 unexpected wins (by the spread - w/ ties) - Spoiler: Kalani has 3
a priori
10/23/19 9:25am
15 games listed
Indy Coug
10/23/19 9:26am
Yep — w/ ties
a priori
10/23/19 9:27am
That not how ties are normally done. If you have two tied for 6 then
cougarfann888
10/23/19 9:46am
You're complaining because I provided more information?
a priori
10/23/19 9:47am
That number five is one reason why
cougarmanguy
10/23/19 9:27am
3 of the games listed were season openers
Indy Coug
10/23/19 9:28am
You've found a way to strike it rich and forget the SL Trib forever!
a priori
10/23/19 9:31am
I think the best approach is to avoid betting at all on openers
Indy Coug
10/23/19 9:33am
Sounds like you're leaving money on the table.
a priori
10/23/19 9:37am
I think there's a pretty good chance that the variance of actual vs predicted spreads is greater for openers
Indy Coug
10/23/19 9:39am
I'd have to do more work for week 1, but there is no statistical difference in
a priori
10/23/19 10:12am
No difference in mean or variance of absolute error when comparing games in
a priori
10/23/19 10:22am
Link?
cougarmanguy
10/23/19 10:27am
Here you go.
a priori
10/23/19 11:05am
If you really believe this, then you should go and make millions.
a priori
10/23/19 9:28am
Because they are without compelling data doesn’t mean
cougarmanguy
10/23/19 9:29am
So, your initial post was agnostic to the direction of the error?
a priori
10/23/19 9:37am
No, it seems you are reading into it something for the sake of arguing
cougarmanguy
10/23/19 9:43am
So, your initial post wasn't agnostic about the direction of the error?
a priori
10/23/19 9:46am
Speaking for the board collectively in your direction,
cougarmanguy
10/23/19 9:48am
Collectively?
a priori
10/23/19 9:54am
I’m done. It was clear.
cougarmanguy
10/23/19 9:55am
ANd that one was exaggerated based on prior year for BYU
BYU '80
10/23/19 11:26am
Sad, only 5 wins when the line is 10+ for the opponent.
MikeDitka'sStache
10/23/19 9:30am
A 10 point spread roughly equates to a 20% win probability, so you wouldn't expect a lot of them.
Indy Coug
10/23/19 9:32am
Has BYU played more or less than 25 such games? If its more than we also should
MikeDitka'sStache
10/23/19 9:33am
Well, a 10 point spread is 20% win probability. A 23.5 point spread is a lot lower than that
Indy Coug
10/23/19 9:34am
There's two ways to be a big underdog.
Corn Pop
10/23/19 10:02am
This is mainly because Kalani coached teams have low expectations. I mean that
Dynasty1
10/23/19 9:37am
great wins; great memories
hxmCougar2000
10/23/19 9:51am
New Mexico in 2005? Interesting. UNM ended as a 6-5 team, BYU ended as a 6-6
Santos L. Halper
10/23/19 10:18am
I forgot utah state was favored by 6 in 2013.
Conan
10/23/19 10:44am
<< Deleted >>
HarlemCoug
10/23/19 10:47am
RE: so weird that someone into sports data would put this together and not
a priori
10/23/19 11:07am
Would love to see the top unexpected losses.
The Old Y
10/23/19 12:29pm
This post is relevant.
a priori
10/23/19 12:39pm
I bet USF would be in there.....
Santos L. Halper
10/23/19 12:42pm
BYU was only a 4.5 favorite. It wouldn't make the list.
a priori
10/23/19 12:50pm
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