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Oct 23, 2019
9:27
:09
am
cougarmanguy
All-American
That number five is one reason why
First game spreads are silly
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cougarmanguy
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cougarmanguy
Joined
Jul 10, 2012
Last login
Mar 15, 2020
Total posts
73,268 (28,671 FO)
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Messages
Author
Time
Top 10 unexpected wins (by the spread - w/ ties) - Spoiler: Kalani has 3
a priori
10/23/19 9:25am
15 games listed
Indy Coug
10/23/19 9:26am
Yep — w/ ties
a priori
10/23/19 9:27am
That not how ties are normally done. If you have two tied for 6 then
cougarfann888
10/23/19 9:46am
You're complaining because I provided more information?
a priori
10/23/19 9:47am
That number five is one reason why
cougarmanguy
10/23/19 9:27am
3 of the games listed were season openers
Indy Coug
10/23/19 9:28am
You've found a way to strike it rich and forget the SL Trib forever!
a priori
10/23/19 9:31am
I think the best approach is to avoid betting at all on openers
Indy Coug
10/23/19 9:33am
Sounds like you're leaving money on the table.
a priori
10/23/19 9:37am
I think there's a pretty good chance that the variance of actual vs predicted spreads is greater for openers
Indy Coug
10/23/19 9:39am
I'd have to do more work for week 1, but there is no statistical difference in
a priori
10/23/19 10:12am
No difference in mean or variance of absolute error when comparing games in
a priori
10/23/19 10:22am
Link?
cougarmanguy
10/23/19 10:27am
Here you go.
a priori
10/23/19 11:05am
If you really believe this, then you should go and make millions.
a priori
10/23/19 9:28am
Because they are without compelling data doesn’t mean
cougarmanguy
10/23/19 9:29am
So, your initial post was agnostic to the direction of the error?
a priori
10/23/19 9:37am
No, it seems you are reading into it something for the sake of arguing
cougarmanguy
10/23/19 9:43am
So, your initial post wasn't agnostic about the direction of the error?
a priori
10/23/19 9:46am
Speaking for the board collectively in your direction,
cougarmanguy
10/23/19 9:48am
Collectively?
a priori
10/23/19 9:54am
I’m done. It was clear.
cougarmanguy
10/23/19 9:55am
ANd that one was exaggerated based on prior year for BYU
BYU '80
10/23/19 11:26am
Sad, only 5 wins when the line is 10+ for the opponent.
MikeDitka'sStache
10/23/19 9:30am
A 10 point spread roughly equates to a 20% win probability, so you wouldn't expect a lot of them.
Indy Coug
10/23/19 9:32am
Has BYU played more or less than 25 such games? If its more than we also should
MikeDitka'sStache
10/23/19 9:33am
Well, a 10 point spread is 20% win probability. A 23.5 point spread is a lot lower than that
Indy Coug
10/23/19 9:34am
There's two ways to be a big underdog.
Corn Pop
10/23/19 10:02am
This is mainly because Kalani coached teams have low expectations. I mean that
Dynasty1
10/23/19 9:37am
great wins; great memories
hxmCougar2000
10/23/19 9:51am
New Mexico in 2005? Interesting. UNM ended as a 6-5 team, BYU ended as a 6-6
Santos L. Halper
10/23/19 10:18am
I forgot utah state was favored by 6 in 2013.
Conan
10/23/19 10:44am
<< Deleted >>
HarlemCoug
10/23/19 10:47am
RE: so weird that someone into sports data would put this together and not
a priori
10/23/19 11:07am
Would love to see the top unexpected losses.
The Old Y
10/23/19 12:29pm
This post is relevant.
a priori
10/23/19 12:39pm
I bet USF would be in there.....
Santos L. Halper
10/23/19 12:42pm
BYU was only a 4.5 favorite. It wouldn't make the list.
a priori
10/23/19 12:50pm
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