Has BYU played more or less than 25 such games? If its more than we also should

Report problem with this ad

Oct 23, 2019
9:33:47am

MikeDitka'sStache Starter

Has BYU played more or less than 25 such games? If its more than we also should

have more wins.

Report problem with this ad

MikeDitka'sStache

New username: ZacSeljaas'Stache
Bio page: MikeDitka'sStache
Joined: Jul 24, 2017
Last login: Jun 2, 2020
Total posts: 0 (0 FO)

Report problem with this ad

Messages

Author

Time

Top 10 unexpected wins (by the spread - w/ ties) - Spoiler: Kalani has 3

a priori

10/23/19 9:25am

15 games listed

Indy Coug

10/23/19 9:26am

Yep — w/ ties

a priori

10/23/19 9:27am

That not how ties are normally done. If you have two tied for 6 then

cougarfann888

10/23/19 9:46am

You're complaining because I provided more information?

a priori

10/23/19 9:47am

That number five is one reason why

10/23/19 9:27am

3 of the games listed were season openers

Indy Coug

10/23/19 9:28am

You've found a way to strike it rich and forget the SL Trib forever!

a priori

10/23/19 9:31am

I think the best approach is to avoid betting at all on openers

Indy Coug

10/23/19 9:33am

Sounds like you're leaving money on the table.

a priori

10/23/19 9:37am

I think there's a pretty good chance that the variance of actual vs predicted spreads is greater for openers

Indy Coug

10/23/19 9:39am

I'd have to do more work for week 1, but there is no statistical difference in

a priori

10/23/19 10:12am

No difference in mean or variance of absolute error when comparing games in

a priori

10/23/19 10:22am

Link?

10/23/19 10:27am

Here you go.

a priori

10/23/19 11:05am

If you really believe this, then you should go and make millions.

a priori

10/23/19 9:28am

Because they are without compelling data doesn’t mean

10/23/19 9:29am

So, your initial post was agnostic to the direction of the error?

a priori

10/23/19 9:37am

No, it seems you are reading into it something for the sake of arguing

10/23/19 9:43am

So, your initial post wasn't agnostic about the direction of the error?

a priori

10/23/19 9:46am

Speaking for the board collectively in your direction,

10/23/19 9:48am

Collectively?

a priori

10/23/19 9:54am

I’m done. It was clear.

10/23/19 9:55am

ANd that one was exaggerated based on prior year for BYU

BYU '80

10/23/19 11:26am

Sad, only 5 wins when the line is 10+ for the opponent.

MikeDitka'sStache

10/23/19 9:30am

A 10 point spread roughly equates to a 20% win probability, so you wouldn't expect a lot of them.

Indy Coug

10/23/19 9:32am

Has BYU played more or less than 25 such games? If its more than we also should

MikeDitka'sStache

10/23/19 9:33am

Well, a 10 point spread is 20% win probability. A 23.5 point spread is a lot lower than that

Indy Coug

10/23/19 9:34am

There's two ways to be a big underdog.

Corn Pop

10/23/19 10:02am

This is mainly because Kalani coached teams have low expectations. I mean that

Dynasty1

10/23/19 9:37am

great wins; great memories

10/23/19 9:51am

New Mexico in 2005? Interesting. UNM ended as a 6-5 team, BYU ended as a 6-6

Santos L. Halper

10/23/19 10:18am

I forgot utah state was favored by 6 in 2013.

Conan

10/23/19 10:44am

<< Deleted >>

HarlemCoug

10/23/19 10:47am

RE: so weird that someone into sports data would put this together and not

a priori

10/23/19 11:07am

Would love to see the top unexpected losses.

The Old Y

10/23/19 12:29pm

This post is relevant.

a priori

10/23/19 12:39pm

I bet USF would be in there.....

Santos L. Halper

10/23/19 12:42pm

BYU was only a 4.5 favorite. It wouldn't make the list.

a priori

10/23/19 12:50pm

Report problem with this ad

Posting on CougarBoard

In order to post, you will need to either sign up or log in.

Report problem with this ad